Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias

References

• Arcidiacono P, Kinsler J, Price J (2013) Productivity spillovers in team production: Evidence from professional basketball. Working paper, Duke University, Durham, NC.Google Scholar
• Baron J, Hershey JC (1988) Outcome bias in decision evaluation. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 54(4):569–579.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Berger J, Pope D (2011) Can losing lead to winning? Management Sci. 57(5):817–827.Link, Google Scholar
• Bertrand M, Mullainathan S (2001) Are CEOs rewarded for luck? The ones without principals are. Quart. J. Econom. 116(3):901–932.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Camerer C, Loewenstein G, Weber M (1989) The curse of knowledge in economic settings: An experimental analysis. J. Political Econom. 97(5):1232–1254.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Card D, Dahl GB (2011) Family violence and football: The effect of unexpected emotional cues on violent behavior. Quart. J. Econom. 126(1):103–143.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Chiappori P-A, Levitt S, Groseclose T (2002) Testing mixed-strategy equilibria when players are heterogeneous: The case of penalty kicks in soccer. Amer. Econom. Rev. 92(4):1138–1151.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Denrell J, Liu C, Maslach D (2013) Bad luck or bad management: How uncertainty about others' inferences moderate responses to failures. Working paper, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.Google Scholar
• Dobbs IM (1991) A Bayesian approach to decision-making under ambiguity. Economica 58(232):417–440.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Earl PE (1990) Economics and psychology: A survey. Econom. J. 100(402):718–755.Google Scholar
• Fischhoff B (1975) Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Perception Performance 1(3):288–299.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gino F, Moore DA, Bazerman MH (2008) No harm, no foul: The outcome bias in ethical judgments. HBS Working Paper 08-080, Harvard Business School, Boston.Google Scholar
• Gino F, Shu LL, Bazerman MH (2010) Nameless + harmless = blameless: When seemingly irrelevant factors influence judgment of (un)ethical behavior. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 111(2):93–101.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gray PK, Gray SF (1997) Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market. J. Finance 52(4):1725–1737.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gray R, Beilock SL, Carr TH (2007) “As soon as the bat met the ball, I knew it was gone”: Outcome predication, hindsight bias, and the representation and control of action in expert and novice baseball players. Psychonomic Bull. Rev. 14(4):669–675.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hawkins SA, Hastie R (1990) Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psych. Bull. 107(3):311–327.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Jones SK, Yurak TJ, Frisch D (1997) The effect of outcome information on the evaluation and recall of individuals' own decisions. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 71(1):95–120.Crossref, Google Scholar
• LaBine SJ, LaBine G (1996) Determinations of negligence and the hindsight bias. Law Human Behav. 20(5):501–516.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lipshitz R (1989) “Either a medal or a corporal”: The effects of success and failure on the evaluation of decision making and decision makers. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 44(3):380–395.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Marshall GW, Mowen JC (1993) An experimental investigation of the outcome bias in salesperson performance evaluations. J. Personal Selling Sales Management 13(3):31–47.Google Scholar
• McCrary J (2008) Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test. J. Econometrics 142(2):698–714.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Offerman T, Sonnemans J (2004) What's causing overreaction? An experimental investigation of recency and the hot-hand effect. Scand. J. Econom. 106(3):533–553.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pope DG, Schweitzer ME (2011) Is Tiger Woods loss averse? Persistent bias in the face of experience, competition, and high stakes. Amer. Econom. Rev. 101(1):129–157.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Price J, Wolfers J (2010) Racial discrimination among NBA referees. Quart. J. Econom. 124(4):1859–1887.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Rabin M (1998) Psychology and economics. J. Econom. Literature 36(1):11–46.Google Scholar
• Ratner RK, Herbst KC (2005) When good decisions have bad outcomes: The impact of affect on switching behavior. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 96:23–37.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Romer D (2006) Do firms maximize? Evidence from professional football. J. Political Econom. 114(2):340–365.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tinsley CH, Dillon RL, Cronin MA (2012) How near-miss events amplify or attenuate risky decision making. Management Sci. 58(9):1596–1613.Link, Google Scholar
• Wolfers J (2002) Are voters rational? Evidence from gubernatorial elections. Stanford GSB Working Paper 1730, Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford, CA.Crossref, Google Scholar