The Sum and Its Parts: Judgmental Hierarchical Forecasting

References

• Allen PG, Fildes R (2001) Econometric forecasting. Armstrong JS, ed. Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer, Norwell, MA), 303–362.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Allon G, Huang T, Bassamboo A (2013) Bounded rationality in service systems. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 15(2):263–279.Link, Google Scholar
• Andreassen P, Kraus SJ (1990) Judgemental extrapolation and the salience of change. J. Forecasting 9(4):347–372.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Armstrong JS (1985) Long-Range Forecasting (Wiley, New York).Google Scholar
• Armstrong JS (2001) Combining forecasts. Armstrong JS, ed. Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer, Norwell, MA), 417–437.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Aviv Y (2001) The effect of collaborative forecasting on supply chain performance. Management Sci. 47(10):1326–1343.Link, Google Scholar
• Blattberg RC, Hoch SJ (1990) Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager. Management Sci. 36(8):887–899.Link, Google Scholar
• Bowman EH (1963) Consistency and optimality in managerial decision making. Management Sci. 9(2):310–321.Link, Google Scholar
• Clark S (2006) Managing the introduction of a structured forecast process: Transformation lessons from Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. Foresight 4:21–25.Google Scholar
• Dangerfield BJ, Morris JS (1992) Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate vs. disaggregate extrapolations. Internat. J. Forecasting 8(2):233–241.Crossref, Google Scholar
• DeBondt WFM (1993) Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return. Internat. J. Forecasting 9(3):355–371.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Doherty ME, Anderson RB, Angott AM, Klopfer DS (2007) The perception of scatterplots. Perception Psychophysics 69(7):1261–1272.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Enns PG, Machak JA, Spivey WA, Wrobleski WJ (1982) Forecasting applications of an adaptive multiple exponential smoothing model. Management Sci. 28(9):1035–1044.Link, Google Scholar
• Fildes R, Petropoulos F (2015) Improving forecast quality in practice. Foresight 36:5–12.Google Scholar
• Fildes R, Goodwin P, Lawrence M, Nikolopoulos K (2009) Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. Internat. J. Forecasting 25(1):3–23.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fischbacher U (2007) z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments. Experiment. Econom. 10(2):171–178.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gardner ES (1990) Evaluating forecast performance in an inventory control system. Management Sci. 36(4):490–499.Link, Google Scholar
• Gaur V, Kesavan S, Raman A, Fisher ML (2007) Estimating demand uncertainty using judgmental forecasts. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 9(4):480–491.Link, Google Scholar
• Graves SC (1999) A single-item inventory model for a nonstationary demand process. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 1(1):50–61.Link, Google Scholar
• Harrison PJ (1967) Exponential smoothing and short-term sales forecasting. Management Sci. 13(11):821–842.Link, Google Scholar
• Harvey AC (1986) Analysis and generalization of a multivariate exponential smoothing model. Management Sci. 32(3):374–380.Link, Google Scholar
• Harvey N (1995) Why are judgments less consistent in less predictable task situations? Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 63(30):247–263.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Harvey N, Ewert T, West R (1997) Effects of data noise on statistical judgement. Thinking and Reasoning 3(2):111–132.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hofman D (2004) The hierarchy of supply chain metrics. Supply Chain Management Rev. 8(6):28–37.Google Scholar
• Hyndman RJ, Ahmed RA, Athanasoloulos G, Shang HL (2011) Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 55(9):2579–2589.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD (2008) Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Spate Approach (Springer, Berlin).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Jones RH (1966) Exponential smoothing for multivariate time-series. J. Royal Statist. Soc. 28(1):241–251.Google Scholar
• Kesavan S, Gaur V, Raman A (2010) Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? Management Sci. 56(9):1519–1533.Link, Google Scholar
• Kremer M, Moritz B, Siemsen E (2011) Demand forecasting behavior: System neglect and change detection. Management Sci. 57(10):1827–1843.Link, Google Scholar
• Lane DM, Anderson CA, Kellam KL (1985) Judging the relatedness of variables: The psychophysics of covariation detection. J. Experiment. Psychol. 11(5):640–649.Google Scholar
• Langer T, Weber M (2008) Does commitment or feedback influence myopic loss aversion? An experimental analysis. J. Econom. Behav. Organ. 67(3–4):810–819.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Larrick RP, Soll JB (2006) Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle. Management Sci. 52(1):111–127.Link, Google Scholar
• Lawrence M, Goodwin P, O’Connor M, Onkal D (2006) Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. Internat. J. Forecasting 22(3):493–518.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lawrence M, O’Connor M (1992) Exploring judgmental forecasting. Internat. J. Forecasting 8(1):15–26.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lee YS, Siemsen E (2015) Task decomposition and newsvendor decision making. Working paper, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.Google Scholar
• Lütkepohl H (1984) Forecasting contemporaneously aggregated vector ARMA processes. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 2(3):201–214.Google Scholar
• Lütkepohl H (2007) New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis (Springer, Berlin).Google Scholar
• Oliva R, Watson N (2009) Managing functional biases in organizational forecasts: A case study of consensus forecasting in supply chain planning. Production Oper. Management 18(2):138–151.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Osadchiy N, Gaur V, Seshadri S (2013) Sales forecasting with financial indicators and experts’ input. Production Oper. Management 22(5):1056–1076.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Özer Ö, Zheng Y, Chen KY (2011) Trust in forecast information sharing. Management Sci. 57(6):1111–1137.Link, Google Scholar
• Ritzman LP, King BE (1993) The relative significance of forecast errors in multistage manufacturing. J. Oper. Management 11(1):51–65.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sanders N, Graman G (2009) Quantifying costs of forecast errors: A case study of the warehouse environment. Omega 37(1):116–125.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sanbonmatsu DM, Posovac SS, Kardes FR, Mantel SP (1998) Selective hypothesis testing. Psychonomic Bull. Rev. 5(2):197–220.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Schunk D, Betsch C (2006) Explaining heterogeneity in utility functions by individual differences in decision modes. J. Econom. Psychol. 27(3):386–401.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Schweitzer ME, Cachon G (2000) Decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution: Experimental evidence. Management Sci. 46(3):404–420.Link, Google Scholar
• Shan JZ, Ward J, Jain S, Beltran J, Amirjalayer F, Kim YW (2009) Spare-parts forecasting: A case study at Hewlett-Packard. Foresight 14:40–47.Google Scholar
• Su X (2008) Bounded rationality in newsvendor models. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 10(4):566–589.Link, Google Scholar
• Syntetos A, Nikolopoulos K, Boylan JE (2010) Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting. Internat. J. Forecasting 26(1):134–143.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Zhao X, Xie J, Leung J (2002) The impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 142(2):321–344.Crossref, Google Scholar