Information Sampling, Belief Synchronization, and Collective Illusions
Published Online:22 Mar 2016https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2354
References
- (2007) The Social Animal (Worth Publishers, New York).Google Scholar
- (1989) Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events. Econom. J. 99(394):116–131.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1956) Studies of independence and conformity: A minority of one against a unanimous majority. Psych. Monographs 70(9):1–70.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) The role of impulses in shaping decisions. J. Behavioral Decision Making 24(5):515–529.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) A simple model of herd behavior. Quart. J. Econom. 107(3):797–817.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) The diffusion of microfinance. Science 341(6144): DOI: 10.1126/science.1236498.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1972) Self-perception theory. Berkowitz L, ed. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 6 (Academic Press, New York), 1–62.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Where consumers diverge from others: Identity signaling and product domains. J. Consumer Res. 34(2):121–134.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. J. Political Econom. 100(5):992–1026.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Microeconomics: Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
- (1966) A Theory of Psychological Reactance (Academic Press, New York).Google Scholar
- (1991) The social self: On being the same and different at the same time. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. 17(5):475–482.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) An adaptive approach to human decision making: Learning theory decision theory and human performance. J. Experiment. Psych.: General 121(2):177–194.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) A contribution of cognitive decision models to clinical assessment: Decomposing performance on the Bechara gambling task. Psych. Assessment 14(3):253–262.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social Learning (Cambridge University Press, New York).Google Scholar
- (2004) Social influence: Conformity and compliance. Annual Rev. Psychol. 55:591–621.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1966) Medical Innovation: A Diffusion Study (Bobbs-Merrill, Indianapolis).Google Scholar
- (1785) Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix (Imprimerie Royale, Paris), Discours préliminaire, i–cxci; Essai, 1–304.Google Scholar
- (2000) Domestic hygiene and diarrhoea—Pinpointing the problem. Tropical Medicine Internat. Health 5(1):22–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1968) Bystander intervention in emergencies: Diffusion of responsibility. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 8(4):377–383.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1973) Group decision and social interaction: A theory of social decision schemes. Psych. Rev. 80(2):97–125.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Why most people disapprove of me: Experience sampling in impression formation. Psych. Rev. 112(4):951–978.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Interdependent sampling and social influence. Psych. Rev. 114(2):398–422.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Seeking positive experiences can produce illusory correlations. Cognition 119(3):313–324.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1955) A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgment. J. Abnormal Soc. Psych. 51(3):629–636.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Nudging farmers to use fertilizer: Theory and experimental evidence from Kenya. Amer. Econom. Rev. 101(6):2350–2390.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Illusory correlations revisited: The role of pseudocontingencies and working-memory capacity. Quart. J. Experiment. Psych. 64(3):517–532.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1978) Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (Wiley, New York).Google Scholar
- (1983) Sour Grapes (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) On adaptation maximization and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies. Psych. Rev. 112(4):912–931.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Attitude formation through exploration: Valence asymmetries. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 87(3):293–311.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Biased judgment in censored environments. Management Sci. 59(3):573–591.Link, Google Scholar
- (1957) A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1950) Social Pressures in Informal Groups: A Study of Human Factors in Housing (Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Why so cynical? Asymmetric feedback underlies misguided skepticism regarding the trustworthiness of others. Psych. Sci. 21(2):189–193.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2000) Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases. Psych. Rev. 107(4):659–676.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) The ultimate sampling dilemma in experience-based decision making. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, Cognition 34(1):186–203.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Voodoo correlations are everywhere–Not only in neuroscience. Perspect. Psych. Sci. 6(2):163–171.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Meta-cognitive myopia and the dilemmas of inductive-statistical inference. Ross BH, ed. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, Vol. 57 (Academic Press, London, UK), 1–46.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously. Fiedler K, Juslin P, eds. Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 3–29.Google Scholar
- (1907) Vox populi. Nature 75(1949):450–51.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1961) Time perspective, consistency of attitude and social influence. J. Abnormal Soc. Psych. 62(3):565–572.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Lecture notes for course MS&E321: Stochastic systems. Stanford School of Engineering, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
- (1978) Threshold models of collective behavior. Amer. J. Sociol. 83(6):1420–1143.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1983) Thirteen theorems in search of the truth. Theory Decision 15(3):261–278.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) The robust beauty of majority rules in group decisions. Psych. Rev. 112(2):494–508.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1958) The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Observational learning and demand for search goods. Amer. Econom. J.: Microeconomics 4(1):1–31.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) What is coded into memory in the absence of outcome feedback? J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, and Cognition 36(1):1–16.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1987) Social identity and conformity: A theory of referent informational influence. Doise W, Moscovici S, eds. Current issues in European Social Psychology, Vol. 2 (Cambridge University Press, New York), 139–182.Google Scholar
- (2007) The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. Psych. Rev. 114(3):678–703.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1980) Classes of orderings of measures and related correlation inequalities I. Multivariate totally positive distributions. J. Multivariate Anal. 10(4):467–498.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1936) General Theory of Employment Interest and Money (Macmillan, London, UK).Google Scholar
- (2003) Regional variation in the treatment and outcomes of myocardial infarction: Investigating New England’s advantage. Amer. Heart J. 146(2):242–249.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Quantifying social influence in an online cultural market. PLoS ONE, 7(5):e33785.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) The case for motivated reasoning. Psych. Bull. 108(3):480–498.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1981) The psychology of social impact. Amer. Psych. 36(4):343–356.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1981) The social impact of majorities and minorities. Psych. Rev. 88(5):438–453.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Rational learning and information sampling: On the naïvety assumption in sampling explanations of judgment biases. Psych. Rev. 118(2):379–392.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Information sampling and the environment: Application to the effect of popularity on evaluations. Working paper.Google Scholar
- (1980) Reaction to opinion deviance in small groups. Paulus PB, ed. Psychology of Group Influence (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ), 375–429.Google Scholar
- (2011) How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108(22):9020–9025.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) The burden of social proof: Shared thresholds and social influence. Psych. Rev. 119(2):345–372.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1986) Social identification effects in group polarization. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 50(4):720–728.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1993) Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability (Springer-Verlag, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1969) Note on the drawing power of crowds of different size. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 13(2):79–82.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Social learning in a heterogeneous population: Technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution. J. Development Econom. 73(1):185–213.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Rev. General Psych. 2(2):175–220.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Geographic variation in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction: The cooperative cardiovascular project. J. Amer. Medical Assoc. 281(7):627–633.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) The Human Equation (Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge MA).Google Scholar
- (2004) Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1993) Pluralistic ignorance and alcohol use on campus: Some consequences of misperceiving the social norm. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 64(2):243–256.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) A Second Course in Probability ( www.ProbabilityBookstore.com, Boston, MA).Google Scholar
- (2006) Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market. Science 311(5762):854–856.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1988) Status quo bias in decision making. J. Risk Uncertainty 1(1):7–59.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) Herd behavior and investment. Amer. Econom. Rev. 80(3):465–479.Google Scholar
- (1978) Micromotives and Macrobehaviour (Norton, New York).Google Scholar
- (2008) The tree of experience in the forest of information: Overweighing experienced relative to observed information. Games Econom. Behav. 62(1):263–286.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Contextualizing person perception: Distributed social cognition. Psych. Rev. 116(2):343–364.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1973) Job market signaling. Quart. J. Econom. 87(3):355–374.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1980) Influence processes in decision-making groups: A modeling approach. Paulus PB, ed. Psychology of Group Influence (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ), 432–477.Google Scholar
- (2009) Republic.com 2.0 (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
- (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds (Double Day, New York).Google Scholar
- (1998) Reinforcement Learning (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
- (1991) Social Influence (Brooks/Cole, Pacific Grove, CA).Google Scholar
- (2000) Attitude change: Persuasion and social influence. Annual Rev. Psych. 51:539–570.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Corporate conservatism and relative compensation. J. Political Econom. 103(1):1–25.Crossref, Google Scholar

