Overconfident Competing Newsvendors

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2469

References

  • Bolton GE, Katok E (2008) Learning by doing in the newsvendor problem: A laboratory investigation of the role of experience and feedback. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 10(3):519–538.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Bolton GE, Ockenfels A, Thonemann UW (2012) Managers and students as newsvendors. Management Sci. 58(12):2225–2233.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Bostian AA, Holt CA, Smith AM (2008) Newsvendor pull-to-center effect: Adaptive learning in a laboratory experiment. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 10(4):590–608.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Cachon GP (2003) Supply chain coordination with contracts. de Kok AG, Graves SC, eds. Supply Chain Management: Design, Coordination and Operation, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Sciences, Vol. 11 (Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam), 227–339.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Camerer C, Lovallo D (1999) Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. Amer. Econom. Rev. 89(1):306–318.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Croson D, Croson R, Ren Y (2011) The overconfident newsvendor. Working paper, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington.Google Scholar
  • Cui TH, Raju JS, Zhang ZJ (2007) Fairness and channel coordination. Management Sci. 53(8):1303–1314.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Feng T, Zhang Y (2016) A behavioral investigation of the competitive newsvendor problem. Working paper, Salisbury University, Salisbury, MD.Google Scholar
  • Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S (1977) Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Perception Performance 3(4):552–564.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Grubb MD (2009) Selling to overconfident consumers. Amer. Econom. Rev. 99(5):1770–1807.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Haran U, Moore DA, Morewedge CK (2010) A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment. Judgment Decision Making 5(7): 467–476.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ho TH, Lim N, Cui TH (2010) Reference dependence in multilocation newsvendor models: A structural analysis. Management Sci. 56(11):1891–1910.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Katok E (2011) Using laboratory experiments to build better operations management models. Foundations Trends Tech., Inform. Oper. Management 5(1):1–86.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Katok E, Wu DY (2009) Contracting in supply chains: A laboratory investigation. Management Sci. 55(12):1953–1968.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Kumar V, Zhang X, Luo A (2014) Modeling customer opt-in and opt-out in a permission-based marketing context. J. Marketing Res. 51(4):403–419.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lau N, Hasija S, Bearden JN (2014) Newsvendor pull-to-center reconsidered. Decision Support Systems 58(February):68–73.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lichtendahl KC, Winkler RL (2007) Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters. Management Sci. 53(11):1745–1755.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Phillips LD (1982) Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A, eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 306–334.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lippman SA, McCardle KF (1997) The competitive newsboy. Oper. Res. 45(1):54–65.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Malmendier U, Tate G (2005) CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. J. Finance 60(6):2661–2700.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Moore DA, Healy PJ (2008) The trouble with overconfidence. Psych. Rev. 115(2):502–517.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Netessine S, Rudi N (2003) Centralized and competitive inventory models with demand substitution. Oper. Res. 51(2):329–335.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Oskamp S (1965) Overconfidence in case-study judgments. J. Consulting Psych. 29(3):261–265.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ovchinnikov A, Moritz B, Quiroga BF (2015) How to compete against a behavioral newsvendor. Production Oper. Management. 24(11):1783–1793.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Özer Ö, Zheng Y, Ren Y (2014) Trust, trustworthiness, and information sharing in supply chains bridging China and the United States. Management Sci. 60(10):2435–2460.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Parlar M (1988) Game theoretic analysis of the substitutable product inventory problem with random demands. Naval Res. Logist. 35(3):397–409.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Plous S (1993) The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill, New York).Google Scholar
  • Pronin E, Gilovich T, Ross L (2004) Objectivity in the eye of the beholder: Divergent perceptions of bias in self versus others. Psych. Rev. 111(3):781–799.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Quiroga BF, Moritz B, Ovchinnikov A (2016) The impact of behavioral ordering on profit under competition: An experimental investigation. Working paper, Clemson University, Clemson, SC.Google Scholar
  • Ren Y, Croson R (2013) Overconfidence in newsvendor orders: An experimental study. Management Sci. 59(11):2502–2517.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Ross L, Ward A (1996) Naive realism in everyday life: Implications for social conflict and misunderstanding. Brown T, Reed E, Turiel E, eds. Values and Knowledge (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ), 103–135.Google Scholar
  • Russo JE, Schoemaker PJ (1992) Managing overconfidence. Sloan Management Rev. 33(2):7–17.Google Scholar
  • Schweitzer ME, Cachon GP (2000) Decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution: Experimental evidence. Management Sci. 46(3):404–420.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Su X (2008) Bounded rationality in newsvendor models. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 10(4):566–589.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Su X, Zhang F (2008) Strategic customer behavior, commitment, and supply chain performance. Management Sci. 54(10):1759–1773.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Van den Steen E (2004) Rational overoptimism (and other biases). Amer. Econom. Rev. 94(4):1141–1151.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Van den Steen E (2011) Overconfidence by bayesian-rational agents. Management Sci. 57(5):884–896.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Wallsten TS, Budescu DV, Zwick R (1993) Comparing the calibration and coherence of numerical and verbal probability judgments. Management Sci. 39(2):176–190.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Zhao Y, Zhao X (2016) How a competing environment influences newsvendor ordering decisions. Internat. J. Production Res. 54(1):204–214.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.