Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration
Published Online:16 Dec 2016https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2580
References
- (1982) A progress report on the training of probability assessors. Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A, eds. Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Missing the trees for the forest: A construal level account of the illusion of explanatory depth. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 99(3):436–451.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1987) Wishful thinking and objectivity among sports fans. Soc. Behaviour 2(4):231–240.Google Scholar
- (1991) Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The “micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty” phenomenon. Soc. Sci. Medicine 32(2):167–174.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. NBER Working Paper 13711, National Bureau Economonic Research, Cambridge, MA.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 97(1):64–81.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Exploring the “planning fallacy”: Why people underestimate their task completion times. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 67(3):366–381.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. Amer. Econom. Rev. 89(1)306–318.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psych. Rev. 101(3):519–527.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Biased judgment in censored environments. Management Sci. 59(3):573–591.Link, Google Scholar
- (2013) Political extremism is supported by an illusion of understanding. Psych. Sci. 24(6):939–946.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1980) A model of calibration for subjective probabilities. Organ. Behav. Human Performance 26(1):32–53.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1978) Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Perception Performance 4(2):330–344.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty. Cognitive Psych. 38(1):167–189.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Sci. 51(9):1417–1432.Link, Google Scholar
- (1991) Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psych. Rev. 98(4):506–528.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq (Vintage, New York).Google Scholar
- (2004) Perspectives on probability judgment calibration. Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 177–199.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psych. 24(3):411–435.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1985) Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, Cognition 11(4):719–731.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Overconfidence and War (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
- (2007) Aspects of endowment: A query theory of value construction. J. Experiment. Psych. Learn., Memory, Cognition 33(3):461–474.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow (Macmillan, New York).Google Scholar
- (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psych. Rev. 80(4):237–251.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Varieties of confirmation bias. Psych. Learn. Motivation 32:385–418.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1987) Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psych. Rev. 94(2):211–228.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes 79(3):216–247.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D, eds. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 686–715.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) The self-consistency model of subjective confidence. Psych. Review 119(1):80–113.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1980) Reasons for confidence. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Learn. Memory 6(2):107–118.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) The case for motivated reasoning. Psych. Bull. 108(3):480–498.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1993) Motivational factors in decision theories: The role of self-protection. Psych. Bull. 113(3):440–450.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) The overconfidence effect in marketing management predictions. J. Marketing Res. 29(3):329–342.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. J. Finance 60(6):2661–2700.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) The calibration of subjective probability: Theories and models 1980–94. Wright G, Ayton P, eds. Subjective Probability (John Wiley & Sons, Oxford, UK), 453–482.Google Scholar
- (2008) The trouble with overconfidence. Psych. Rev. 115(2):502–517.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1977) Confirmation bias in a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference. Quart. J. Experiment. Psych. 29(1):85–95.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Rev. General Psych. 2(2):175–220.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1965) Overconfidence in case-study judgments. J. Consulting Psych. 29(3):261–318.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1997) Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in support theory. Psych. Rev. 104(2):406–318.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) The misunderstood limits of folk science: An illusion of explanatory depth. Cognitive Sci. 26(5):521–562.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) The role of prior knowledge and missing information in multiattribute evaluation. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 51(1):76–91.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1991) Remembering less and inferring more: Effects of time of judgment on inferences about unknown attributes. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 61(4):546–554.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1980) Effects of the expert, devil’s advocate, and dialectical inquiry methods on prediction performance. Organ. Behav. Human Performance 26(3):409–424.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, Cognition 32(6):1385–1402.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1996) Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 65(2):117–137.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Overconfidence in interval estimates. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, Cognition 30(2):299–314.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Spotlights, floodlights, and the magic number zero: Simple effects tests in moderated regression. J. Marketing Res. 50(2):277–288.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2017) Judgment extremity and accuracy under epistemic vs. aleatory uncertainty. Management Sci. 63(2):497–518.Link, Google Scholar
- (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers. Psych. Bull. 76(2):105–110.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185(4157):1124–1131.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psych. Rev. 101(4):547–567.Crossref, Google Scholar

