Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2645

References

  • Arkes HR, Dawes RM, Christensen C (1986) Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 37(1):93–110.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bliss JP, Gilson RD, Deaton JE (1995) Human probability matching behaviour in response to alarms of varying reliability. Ergonomics 38(11):2300–2312.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Breznitz S (1984) Cry Wolf: The Psychology of False Alarms (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Englewood Hills, NJ).Google Scholar
  • Budescu DV, Wallsten TS (1987) Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties. Wright G, Ayton P, eds. Judgmental Forecasting (John Wiley & Sons, New York), 63–82.Google Scholar
  • Budescu DV, Por HH, Broomell S (2012) Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports. Climate Change 113(2):181–200.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Craft DL, Wein LM, Wilkins AH (2005) Analyzing bioterror response logistics: The case of anthrax. Management Sci. 51(5):679–694.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Erev I, Bornstein G, Wallsten TS (1993) The negative effect of probability assessment on decision quality. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 55(1):78–94.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fox CR, Tversky A (1998) A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty Management Sci. 44(7):879–895.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Green LV, Kolesar PJ (2004) Improving emergency responsiveness with management science. Management Sci. 50(8):1001–1014.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Harris AJ, Corner A (2011) Communicating environmental risks: Clarifying the severity effect in interpretations of verbal probability expressions. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learning, Memory, Cognition 37(6):1571–1578.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hendriks A (2012) SoPHIE—Software platform for human interaction experiments. Working paper, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany.Google Scholar
  • Kahneman D (2003) Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics. Amer. Econom. Rev. 93(4):1449–1475.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Karelitz TM, Budescu DV (2004) You say “probable” and I say “likely”: Improving interpersonal communication with verbal probability phrases. J. Experiment. Psych.: Appl. 10(1):25–41.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Meyer J, Bitan Y (2002) Why better operators receive worse warnings. Human Factors 44(3):343–353.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Papastavrou JD, Lehto MR (1996) Improving the effectiveness of warnings by increasing the appropriateness of their information content: Some hypotheses about human compliance. Safety Sci. 21(3):175–189.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pinker EJ (2007) An analysis of short-term responses to threats of terrorism. Management Sci. 53(6):865–880.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Rottenstreich Y, Kivetz R (2006) On decision making without likelihood judgment. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 101(1):74–88.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Roulston MS, Smith LA (2004) The boy who cried wolf revisited: The impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather Forecasting 19(2):391–397.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Roulston MS, Bolton GE, Kleit AN, Sears-Collins AL (2006) A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Weather Forecasting 21(1):116–122.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Silver N (2012) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t (Penguin Press, London).Google Scholar
  • U.S. National Research Council (2006) Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (National Academies Press, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
  • Wallsten TS, Budescu DV, Zwick R, Kemp SM (1993) Preferences and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in numerical or verbal terms. Bull. Psychonomic Soc. 31(2):135–138.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wallsten TS, Budescu DV, Rapoport A, Zwick R, Forsyth B (1986) Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms. J. Experiment. Psych. 115(4):348–365.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Weber EU (1994) From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. Psych. Bull. 115(2):228–242.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Weber EU, Hilton DJ (1990) Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Perception Performance 16(4):781–789.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yaniv I, Foster DP (1995) Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. J. Experiment. Psych. 124(4):424–432.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yaniv I, Foster DP (1997) Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation. J. Behav. Decision Making 10(1):21–32.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.