Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy

References

• Achtziger A, Alós-Ferrer C (2014) Fast or rational? A response-times study of Bayesian updating. Management Sci. 60(4):923–938.Link, Google Scholar
• Alós-Ferrer C, Granić DG, Kern J, Wagner AK (2016) Preference reversals: Time and again. J. Risk Uncertainty 52(1):65–97.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Asparouhova E, Hertzel M, Lemmon M (2009) Inference from streaks in random outcomes: Experimental evidence on beliefs in regime shifting and the law of small numbers. Management Sci. 55(11):1766–1782.Link, Google Scholar
• Ayton P, Fisher I (2004) The gambler’s fallacy and the hot-handed fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness. Memory Cognition 32(8):1369–1378.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Barron G, Leider S (2010) The role of experience in the gambler’s fallacy. J. Behav. Decision Making 23(1):117–129.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1976) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (Holden-Day, San Francisco).Google Scholar
• Burns BD, Corpus B (2004) Randomness and inductions from steaks: “Gambler’s fallacy” versus “hot-hand.” Psychonomic Bull. Rev. 11(1):179–184.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Camerer CF (1989) Does the basketball market believe in the hot-hand?. Amer. Econom. Rev. 79(5):1257–1261.Google Scholar
• Caruso EM, Waytz M, Epley N (2010) The intentional mind and the hot-hand: Perceiving intentions makes streaks seem likely to continue. Cognition 116(1):149–153.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Chen DL, Moskowitz TJ, Shue K (2016) Decision-making under the gambler’s fallacy: Evidence from asylum judges, loan officers, and baseball umpires. Quart. J. Econom. 131(3):1181–1241.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Clotfelter C, Cook D (1993) The “gambler’s fallacy” in lottery play. Management Sci. 39(2):1521–1525.Link, Google Scholar
• Croson R, Sundali J (2005) The gambler’s fallacy and the hot-hand: Empirical data from casinos. J. Risk Uncertainty 30(3):195–209.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gilovich T, Allone R, Tversky A (1985) The hot-hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psych. 17(3):295–314.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Green B, Zwiebel J (2017) The hot-hand fallacy: Cognitive mistakes or equilibrium adjustments? Evidence from major league baseball. Management Sci. 64(11):5315–5348.Link, Google Scholar
• Green CS, Benson C, Kersten D, Schrater P (2010) Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107(37):16401–16406.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Guryan J, Kearney MS (2008) Gambling at lucky stores: Empirical evidence from state lottery sales. Amer. Econom. Rev. 98(1):458–473.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Harrison GW, List JA (2004) Field experiments. J. Econom. Literature 42(4):1009–1055.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Haruvy E, Erev I, Sonsino D (2001) The medium prizes paradox: Evidence from a simulated casino. J. Risk Uncertainty 22(3):251–261.Crossref, Google Scholar
• List JA, Shaikh AM, Xu Y (2016) Multiple hypothesis testing in experimental economics. NBER Working Paper No. 21875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Maniadis Z, Tufano F, List JA (2014) One swallow doesn’t make a summer: New evidence on anchoring effects. Amer. Econom. Rev. 104(1):277–290.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Militana E, Wolfson E, Cleaveland JM (2010) An effect of inter-trial duration on the gambler’s fallacy choice bias. Behav. Processes 84(1):455–459.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Navarrete G, Santamaría C (2012) Adding possibilities can reduce the gambler’s fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox. J. Cognitive Psych. 24(3):306–312.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Oskarsson AT, Van Boven L, McClelland GH, Hastie R (2009) What’s next? Judging sequences of binary events. Psych. Bull. 135(2):262–285.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Peer E, Brandimarte L, Samat S, Acquisti A (2017) Beyond the Turk: Alternative platforms for crowdsourcing behavioral research. J. Experiment. Soc. Psych. 70:153–163.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Rabin M (2002) Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. Quart. J. Econom. 117(3):775–816.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Rabin M, Vayanos D (2010) The gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies: Theory and applications. Rev. Econom. Stud. 77(2):730–778.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Suetens S, Galbo-Jørgensen CB, Tyran JR (2016) Predicting lotto numbers: A natural experiment on the gambler’s fallacy and the hot-hand fallacy. J. Eur. Econom. Assoc. 14(3):584–607.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sundali J, Croson R (2006) Biases in casino betting: The hot-hand and the gambler’s fallacy. Judgment Decision Making 1(1):1–12.Google Scholar
• Terrell D (1994) A test of the gambler’s fallacy—Evidence from pari-mutuel games. J. Risk Uncertainty 8(3):309–317.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tversky A, Kahneman D (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers. Psych. Bull. 76(2):105–110.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Sci. 185(4157):1124–1131.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Wang TV, Potter van Loon RJD, Van de Assem MJ, Van Dolder D (2016) Number preferences in lotteries. Judgment Decision Making 11(3):243–259.Google Scholar