Eliciting Human Judgment for Prediction Algorithms
Published Online:25 Jan 2021https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3856
References
- (1995) Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts’ forecasts. Financial Rev. 30(3):469–506.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review. Omega 86:(July 2019)237–252.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model+ 50% manager. Management Sci. 36(8):887–899.Link, Google Scholar
- (2011) Market heterogeneity and local capacity decisions in services. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 13(1):2–19.Link, Google Scholar
- (1983) Comparing for different time series methods the value of technical expertise individualized analysis, and judgmental adjustment. Management Sci. 29(5):559–566.Link, Google Scholar
- (2018) Understanding costs of care in the operating room. JAMA Surgery 153(4):e176233–e176233.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2000) The explicit economics of knowledge codification and tacitness. Indust. Corporate Change 9(2):211–253.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Should sellers prefer auctions? A laboratory comparison of auctions and sequential mechanisms. Management Sci. 60(4):990–1008.Link, Google Scholar
- (2009) Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply chain planning. Internat. J. Forecasting 25(1):3–23.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Sci. 51(9):1417–1432.Link, Google Scholar
- (2000) Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods. Internat. J. Forecasting 16(2):261–275.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) SoPHIE - Software platform for human interaction experiments. Working paper, University of Osnabrueck, Osnabrück, Germany.Google Scholar
- (2009) The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psych. Sci. 20(2):231–237.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Designing pricing contracts for boundedly rational customers: Does the framing of the fixed fee matter? Management Sci. 54(4):686–700.Link, Google Scholar
- (2015) Surgical duration estimation via data mining and predictive modeling: A case study. AMIA Annual Sympos. Proc. 2015:640–648.Google Scholar
- (2013) Bounded rationality in service systems. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 15(2):263–279.Link, Google Scholar
- (2019) Is expert input valuable? The case of predicting surgery duration. Seoul J. Bus. 25(2):1–34.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2016) Noise: How to overcome the high, hidden cost of inconsistent decision making. Harvard Bus. Rev. 94(2016):38–46.Google Scholar
- (2020) Field experiment on the profit implications of merchants’ discretionary power to override data-driven decision-making tools. Management Sci. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
- (2015) ICU admission control: An empirical study of capacity allocation and its implication for patient outcomes. Management Sci. 61(1):19–38.Link, Google Scholar
- (2016) The sum and its parts: Judgmental hierarchical forecasting. Management Sci. 62(9):2745–2764.Link, Google Scholar
- (2000) A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 122(1):151–160.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. Internat. J. Forecasting 22(3):493–518.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Are your hospital operating rooms “efficient”? A scoring system with eight performance indicators. Anesthesiology 105(2):237–240.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds. Krueger JI, ed. Social Judgment and Decision Making, Frontiers of Social Psychology (Psychology Press, New York), 227–242.Google Scholar
- (2013) Sales forecasting with financial indicators and experts’ input. Production Oper. Management 22(5):1056–1076.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) Extracting the wisdom of crowds when information is shared. Management Sci. 65(5):2291–2309.Abstract, Google Scholar
- (1976) Toward the simulation of clinical cognition: taking a present illness by computer. Amer. J. Medicine 60(7):981–996.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) The effectiveness of field price discretion: Empirical evidence from auto lending. Management Sci. 61(8):1741–1759.Link, Google Scholar
- (2014) Knowledge crystallization and clinical priorities: Evaluating how physicians collect and synthesize patient-related data. AMIA Annual Sympos. Proc. 2014:1874–1883.Google Scholar
- (1970) Increasing risk, I: A definition. J. Econom. Theory 2(3):225–243.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Bounded rationality in newsvendor models. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 10(4):566–589.Link, Google Scholar
- (2005) The Wisdom of Crowds (Anchor, New York).Google Scholar
- (2017) A behavioral model of forecasting: Naive statistics on mental samples. Management Sci. 63(11):3609–3627.Link, Google Scholar
- (2008) Measuring the crowd within: Probabilistic representations within individuals. Psych. Sci. 19(7):645–647.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) Method to assist in the scheduling of add-on surgical cases-upper prediction bounds for surgical case durations based on the log-normal distribution. Anesthesiology 89(5):1228–1232.Crossref, Google Scholar

