The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success
Published Online:12 Mar 2021https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3911
References
- (2018) Machine learning and portfolio optimization. Management Sci. 64(3):1136–1154.Link, Google Scholar
- (2012) The pulse of news in social media: Forecasting popularity. Breslin J, ed. ICWSM 2012—Proc. 6th Internat. AAAI Conf. Weblogs Social Media (AAAI Press, Palo Alto, CA), 26–33.Google Scholar
- (2013) Least squares after model selection in high-dimensional sparse models. Bernoulli 19(2):521–547.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Twitter mood predicts the stock market. J. Comput. Sci. 2(1):1–8.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1996) Bagging predictors. Machine Learn. 26:123–140.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) Random forests. Machine Learn. 45:5–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1984) Classification and Regression Trees (Chapman and Hall/CRC, New York).Google Scholar
- (1995) Multivariate decision trees. Machine Learn. 19(1):45–77.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2003) Consistent model selection by an automatic gets approach. Oxford Bull. Econom. Statist. 65(s1):803–819.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Piecewise-polynomial regression trees. Statistica Sinica 4(1):143–167.Google Scholar
- (2010) The effects of online user reviews on movie box office performance: Accounting for sequential rollout and aggregation across local markets. Marketing Sci. 29(5):944–957.Link, Google Scholar
- (2010) BART: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Statist. 6(1):266–298.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar. J. Econom. Dynamics Control 28(6):1035–1057.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) SECRET: A scalable linear regression tree algorithm. Proc. Eighth ACM SIGKDD Internat. Conf. Knowledge Discovery Data Mining (ACM Press, New York), 481–487.Google Scholar
- (1996) Support vector regression machines. Mozer MC, Jordan MI, Petsche T, eds. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 9 (NIPS 1996) (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA), 155–161.Google Scholar
- (2005) Regression tree analysis using TARGET. J. Computational Graphical Statist. 14(1):206–218.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Variable selection using random forests. Pattern Recognition Lett. 31(14):2225–2236.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Social media brand community and consumer behavior: Quantifying the relative impact of user- and marketer-generated content. Inform. Systems Res. 24(1):88–107.Link, Google Scholar
- (2013) Blogs, advertising, and local-market movie box office performance. Management Sci. 59(12):2635–2654.Link, Google Scholar
- (2008) Classification tree analysis using TARGET. Computational Statist. Data Anal. 52(3):1362–1372.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Tweetin’ in the rain: Exploring societal-scale effects of weather on mood. Breslin J, ed. Proc. Sixth Internat. AAAI Conf. Weblogs Social Media (AAAI Press, Palo Alto, CA), 479–482.Google Scholar
- (2014) Model averaging, asymptotic risk, and regressor groups. Quant. Econom. 5:495–530.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Jackknife model averaging. J. Econometrics 167(1):38–46.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) A test for superior predictive ability. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 23(4):365–380.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Springer Series in Statistics (Springer New York, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ), 286–301.Google Scholar
- (2018) Bayesian additive regression trees using Bayesian model averaging. Statist. Comput. 28(4):869–890.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Unbiased recursive partitioning: A conditional inference framework. J. Computational Graphical Statist. 15(3):651–674.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Variable importance in binary regression trees and forests. Electronic J. Statist. 1:519–537.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2003) Classification trees with bivariate linear discriminant node models. J. Computational Graphical Statist. 12(3):512–530.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2017) Box office buzz: Does social media data steal the show from model uncertainty when forecasting for Hollywood? Rev. Econom. Statist. 99(5):749–755.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Heteroskedasticity-robust Cp model averaging. Econom. J. 16:463–472.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Word of mouth for movies: Its dynamics and impact on box office revenue. J. Marketing 70(3):74–89.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1997) Split selection methods for classification trees. Statistica Sinica 7(4):815–840.Google Scholar
- (2004) Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations. Econometrica 72(4):1221–1246.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) A system for induction of oblique decision trees. J. Artificial Intelligence Res. 2(1994):1–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Heteroscedastic BART via multiplicative regression trees. J. Computational Graphical Statist. 29(2):405–417.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1992) Learning with Continuous Classes (World Scientific, Singapore), 343–348.Google Scholar
- (2006) The log of gravity. Rev. Econom. Statist. 88(4):641–658.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Model averaging and its use in economics. J. Econom. Lit. 58(3):644–719.Google Scholar
- (2008) Conditional variable importance for random forests. BMC Bioinformatics 9(1):307.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Least squares support vector machine classifiers. Neural Processing Lett. 9(1999):293–300.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Parametric and nonparametric frequentist model selection and model averaging. Econometrics 1:157–179.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Forecasting daily and monthly exchange rates with machine learning techniques. J. Forecasting 34(7):560–573.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 113(523):1228–1242.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion. J. Econometrics 156(2):277–283.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1997) No free lunch theorems for optimization. IEEE Trans. Evolutionary Comput. 1(1):67–82.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Prediction model averaging estimator. Econom. Lett. 131:5–8.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2017) Heteroscedasticity-robust model screening: A useful toolkit for model averaging in big data analytics. Econom. Lett. 151:119–122.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Prerelease buzz evolution patterns and new product performance. Marketing Sci. 33(3):401–421.Link, Google Scholar
- (2005) Combining linear regression models: When and how? J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 100(472):1202–1214.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2016a) On the dominance of Mallows model averaging estimator over ordinary least squares estimator. Econom. Lett. 142:69–73.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Model averaging based on Kullback-Leibler distance. Statistica Sinica 25(4):1583–1598.Google Scholar
- (2016b) Optimal model averaging estimation for generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed-effects models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 111(516):1775–1790.Crossref, Google Scholar

