From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting

References

• Barbey AK, Sloman SA (2007) Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behav. Brain Sci. 30(3):241–254.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bazerman MH, Moore DA (2012) Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th ed. (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• Becker-Peth M, Thonemann UW (2018) Behavioral inventory decisions: The newsvendor and other inventory settings. Donohue K, Katok E, Leider S, eds. The Handbook of Behavioral Operations, Wiley Series in Operations and Management Science (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ), 393–432.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Brown KC (1974) A note on the apparent bias of net revenue estimates for capital investment projects. J. Finance 29(4):1215–1216.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Casella G, Berger RL (2002) Statistical Inference, vol. 2 (Duxbury, Pacific Grove, CA).Google Scholar
• Eddy DM (1982) Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A, eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 249–267.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Erev I, Wallsten TS, Budescu DV (1994) Simultaneous over-and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psych. Rev. 101(3):519–527.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Feiler DC, Tong JD, Larrick RP (2013) Biased judgment in censored environments. Management Sci. 59(3):573–591.Link, Google Scholar
• Flicker B (2019) Managerial insight and “optimal” algorithms. Working paper, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC.Google Scholar
• Gartner WB, Thomas RJ (1993) Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms. J. Product Innovation Management 10(1):35–52.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Girotra K, Terwiesch C, Ulrich KT (2010) Idea generation and the quality of the best idea. Management Sci. 56(4):591–605.Link, Google Scholar
• Grushka-Cockayne Y, Erat S, Wooten J (2018) New product development and project management decisions. Donohue K, Katok E, Leider S, eds. The Handbook of Behavioral Operations, Wiley Series in Operations and Management Science (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ), 367–392.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hammond J (2016) Global supply chain management simulation v2. Harvard Business Publishing Education 8623-HTM-ENG, Boston.Google Scholar
• Harrison JR, Bazerman MH (1995) Regression to the mean, expectation inflation, and the winner’s curse in organizational contexts. Kramer RM, Messick DM, eds. Negotiation as a Social Process: New Trends in Theory and Research (Sage Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA), 69–94.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Harrison JM, Kreps DM (1978) Speculative investor behavior in a stock market with heterogeneous expectations. Quart. J. Econom. 92(2):323–336.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Harrison JR, March JG (1984) Decision making and postdecision surprises. Admin. Sci. Quart. 29(1):26–42.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Herzog SM, Hertwig R (2009) The wisdom of many in one mind: Improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping. Psych. Sci. 20(2):231–237.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hogarth RM, Karelaia N (2012) Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgment. Organ. Sci. 23(6):1733–1747.Link, Google Scholar
• Hogarth RM, Makridakis S (1981) Forecasting and planning: An evaluation. Management Sci. 27(2):115–138.Link, Google Scholar
• Kagan E, Leider S, Lovejoy WS (2018) Ideation–execution transition in product development: An experimental analysis. Management Sci. 64(5):2238–2262.Link, Google Scholar
• Kagel JH, Levin D (1986) The winner’s curse and public information in common value auctions. Amer. Econom. Rev. 76(5):894–920.Google Scholar
• Kahneman D (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow (Macmillan, London).Google Scholar
• Kremer M, Moritz B, Siemsen E (2011) Demand forecasting behavior: System neglect and change detection. Management Sci. 57(10):1827–1843.Link, Google Scholar
• Kremer M, Siemsen E, Thomas DJ (2016) The sum and its parts: Judgmental hierarchical forecasting. Management Sci. 62(9):2745–2764.Link, Google Scholar
• Lawrence M, Goodwin P, O’Connor M, Önkal D (2006) Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. Internat. J. Forecasting 22(3):493–518.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lee YS, Siemsen E (2017) Task decomposition and newsvendor decision making. Management Sci. 63(10):3226–3245.Link, Google Scholar
• Li M, Petruzzi NC, Zhang J (2017) Overconfident competing newsvendors. Management Sci. 63(8):2637–2646.Link, Google Scholar
• Mannes AE, Soll JB, Larrick RP (2014) The wisdom of select crowds. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 107(2):276–299.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Moore DA, Healy PJ (2008) The trouble with overconfidence. Psych. Rev. 115(2):502–517.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Petersen KJ, Handfield RB, Ragatz GL (2005) Supplier integration into new product development: Coordinating product, process and supply chain design. J. Oper. Management 23(3-4):371–388.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ren Y, Croson R (2013) Overconfidence in newsvendor orders: An experimental study. Management Sci. 59(11):2502–2517.Link, Google Scholar
• Schweitzer ME, Cachon GP (2000) Decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution: Experimental evidence. Managemet Sci. 46(3):404–420.Link, Google Scholar
• Siemsen E, Moritz B, Goodwin P (2018) Forecast decisions. The Handbook of Behavioral Operations, Wiley Series in Operations and Management Science (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ), 433–458.Google Scholar
• Simon M, Shrader RC (2012) Entrepreneurial actions and optimistic overconfidence: The role of motivated reasoning in new product introductions. J. Bus. Venturing 27(3):291–309.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Smith JE, Winkler RL (2006) The optimizer’s curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Science 52(3):311–322.Link, Google Scholar
• Soll JB (1996) Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 65(2):117–137.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Soll JB, Milkman KL, Payne JW (2015) A user’s guide to debiasing. Keren G, Wu G, eds. The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2 (John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK), 924–951.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tong J, Feiler D (2017) A behavioral model of forecasting: Naive statistics on mental samples. Management Sci. 63(11):3609–3627.Link, Google Scholar
• Tong J, Feiler D, Ivantsova A (2018) Good choice, bad judgment: How choice under uncertainty generates overoptimism. Psych. Sci. 29(2):254–265.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tyebjee TT (1987) Behavioral biases in new product forecasting. Internat. J. Forecasting 3(3-4):393–404.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Urban GL, Weinberg BD, Hauser JR (1996) Premarket forecasting of really-new products. J. Marketing 60(1):47–60.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Van den Steen E (2004) Rational overoptimism (and other biases). Amer. Econom. Rev. 94(4):1141–1151.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Yelland PM, Kim S, Stratulate R (2010) A Bayesian model for sales forecasting at Sun Microsystems. Interfaces 40(2):118–129.Link, Google Scholar