Technological Forecasting—Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models
Published Online:1 Aug 1998https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.8.1115
References
- Demand for new commodities. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A (1963) 126:285–299Crossref, Google Scholar
- A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. (1969) 15:215–227Link, Google Scholar
- . Quantitative laws in metabolism and growth. Quart. Rev. in Bio. (1957) 32:217–231Crossref, Google Scholar
- Flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications. Internat. J. Forecasting (1988) 4:177–192Crossref, Google Scholar
- The market dynamics of technological substitution. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1974) 6:41–63Crossref, Google Scholar
- Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Internat. J. Forecasting (1989) 5:559–584Crossref, Google Scholar
- A non-symmetric responding logistic model for forecasting technological substitution. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1981) 20:199–213Crossref, Google Scholar
- A simple substitution model of technological change. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1971) 3:75–88Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Bright J. Trend forecasting: A methodology for figure of merit. Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government; Methods and Applications (1968) (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ) Google Scholar
- Mathematical Trend Curves: An Aid to Forecasting (1964) (Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh, Scotland) Google Scholar
- The use of trend curves as an aid to market forecasting. Indust. Marketing Management (1972) 2:149–170Crossref, Google Scholar
- Time series forecasting based on the logistic curve. J. Oper. Res. Soc. (1984) 35:641–646Crossref, Google Scholar
- Testing for functional misspecification in regression analysis. J. Econometrics (1977) 6:103–119Crossref, Google Scholar
- Parsimonious models of diffusion of innovations: Part A., derivations and comparisons. (1981) . Working paper, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, ILGoogle Scholar
- The Advanced Theory of Statistics (1983) 34th ed.(Macmillan, New York) Google Scholar
- The Art of Computer Programming (1981) (Addison Wesley, New York) Google Scholar
- Technological innovation diffusion: The proliferation of substitution models and easing the user dilemma. IEEE Trans. on Engrg. Management (1992) 39:158–168Crossref, Google Scholar
- Technological forecasting with non-linear models. J. Forecasting (1992) 11:195–206Crossref, Google Scholar
- Forecasting trending time series with relative growth rate models. Technometrics (1976) 18:261–272Crossref, Google Scholar
- International comparison of growth in demand for a new durable consumer product. J. Marketing Res. (1982) 19:364–371Crossref, Google Scholar
- Technological Substitution. Forecasting Techniques and Applications (1976) (Elsevier, New York) Google Scholar
- Innovation diffusion in a dynamic potential adapter population. Management Sci. (1978) 24:1589–1597Link, Google Scholar
- New product diffusion models in marketing: A review and directions for research. J. Marketing (1990) 54:1–26Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Eliashberg J., Lilien G. L. New product diffusion models. Handbooks in Operation Research & Management Science (1993) (North-Holland, Amsterdam) Google Scholar
- Technical change and the rate of imitation. Econometrica (1961) 29:741–765Crossref, Google Scholar
- Technological Forecasting for Decision Making (1983) 2nd ed.(North-Holland, New York) Google Scholar
- An econometric model of television ownership. Econom. and Soc. Rev. (Dublin) (1976) 7:256–277Google Scholar
- Forecasting using growth curves—An adaptive approach. J. Oper. Res. Soc. (1985) 36:1103–1115Google Scholar
- A modified logistic model applied to human populations. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Series A (1988) 151:491–498Crossref, Google Scholar
- Numerical Algorithm Group (1986) . NAG FORTRAN Library Manual, NAG, Oxford, UKGoogle Scholar
- The fitting of a generalisation of the logistic curve. Biometrica (1971) 17:89–110Crossref, Google Scholar
- International diffusion of steel technology: Time lag and the speed of diffusion. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1983) 23:305–323Crossref, Google Scholar
- On applying logistic models in technological forecasting. Socio-Econom. Planning Sci. (1986) 24:201–206Crossref, Google Scholar
- The substitution phenomenon. Bus. Horizons (1972) 15:63–68Crossref, Google Scholar
- Diffusion of Innovations (1962) (The Free Press, New York) Google Scholar
- A comparison of extrapolation models on yearly sales forecasts. Internat. J. Forecasting (1986) 2:71–85Crossref, Google Scholar
- A generalized model for forecasting technological substitution. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1976) 8:353–364Crossref, Google Scholar
- The Weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1980) 18:247–256Crossref, Google Scholar
- A new model of innovation diffusion. J. Sci. Indust. Res. (1993) 52:151–158Google Scholar
- Innovation diffusion models expressing asymmetry and/or positively or negatively influencing forces. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1986) 30:313–330Crossref, Google Scholar
- Population dynamics in daphnia magna and a new model for population growth. Ecology (1963) 44:651–663Crossref, Google Scholar
- Nonlinear least squares estimation of new product diffusion models. Marketing Sci (1986) 5:169–178Link, Google Scholar
- The normal distribution as a model of technological substitution. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1976) 8:325–334Crossref, Google Scholar
- Sigmoids. Bias (1978) 7:59–119Google Scholar
- Long-term forecasting of vehicle ownership and road traffic. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Series A (1978) 141:14–63Crossref, Google Scholar
- Technological growth curves—A comparison of forecasting models. Tech. Forecasting and Soc. Change (1993) 44:375–389Crossref, Google Scholar
- Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves. Internat. J. Forecasting (1989) 5:501–513Crossref, Google Scholar

