Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved

References

• Von Neumann John, Morgenstern Oskar. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944, 1947) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) . (I read parts of this epic book in 1949 working for my Office of Naval Research Contract on submarine detection. My first introduction to utility theory.)Google Scholar
• Wald Abraham. Sequential Analysis (1947) (Wiley, New York) . (A quasi-decision oriented book that I studied alone in 1948 as a student in statistics.)Google Scholar
• Wald Abraham. Statistical Decision Theory (1950) (McGraw-Hill, New York) . (The pioneering book that sets up the statistical decision paradigm. I read this book as soon as it appeared and gave a series of seminars on it for the statistical seminar at the University of Michigan.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. Arbitration schemes for generalized twoperson games. (1951) . Report M-720-1 R30 Engineering Research Institute, University of Michigan. (Unpublished report written for an ONR contract that became the basis for my doctoral dissertation.)Google Scholar
• Chernoff Herman. Rational selection of decision functions. Econometrica (1954) 22(Chernoff makes use of the sure-thing principle of Herman Rubin that I adopt as one of my basic axioms in my struggle with the foundations of statistics. It helped convert me into the subjectivist school.)Crossref, Google Scholar
• Savage L. James. The Foundations of Statistics (1954) (Wiley, New York) . (The "bible" of the Bayesians.)Google Scholar
• Luce Duncan R., Raiffa Howard. Games and Decisions (1957) (Wiley, New York) . and re-published by Dover. (Reports on much of the unpublished results in my engineering report (1951). It compares the objectivist and subjectivist foundations of probability, but it doesn't openly endorse the Bayesian camp.)Google Scholar
• Schlaifer Robert O., Raiffa Howard. Applied Statistical Decision Theory (1961) (Division of Research, Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA) . Republished in Wiley Classic Library Series (2000). (It introduces families of conjugate distributions that make it easy to go from prior distributions to posterior distributions and shows that Bayesianism can be made operational.)Google Scholar
• Grayson Jack C.Decisions under Uncertainty: Drilling Decisions by Oil and Gas Operators (1962) (Division of Research, Harvard Business School Cambridge, MA) . (This dissertation that I supervised made me realize that the statistical decision theory paradigm was too confining and I shifted from being a "statistical decision theorist" to being a "managerial economist.")Google Scholar
• Pratt John W., Raiffa Howard, Schlaifer Robert O.Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory (1963) . Distributed by McGraw-Hill in mimeographic form. Published by the MIT Press in finished form (1995). (A textbook version of ASDT. While widely adopted in mimeographic, unfinished form, it is not finished until 1995.)Google Scholar
• Howard Ronald A. "Decision analysis: Applied decision theory. Proc. Fourth Internat. Conference Oper. Res. (1966) (Boston, MA). (First published paper referring to decision analysis and outlining its applicability.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. Decision Analysis (1968) . Addison Wesley and republished by McGraw-Hill. (Documents the paradigmatic shift from statistical decision theory to decision analysis.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. Preferences for multi-attributed alternatives. (1969) . RM-5868-DOT/RC The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. (Earlier versions of this report were circulated in 1967 and influenced the early work by Keeney alone and with me.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. Analysis for Decision Making (1973) . An audiographic self-instructional course. Ten volumes. Encyclopedia Britannica Educational Corp. Revised and republished by Learn, Inc. (1985)Google Scholar
• Keeney Ralph L., Raiffa Howard. Decisions with Multiple Objectives (1976) (Wiley, republished by Cambridge University Press (1993)) . (First serious attempt to develop analytical techniques for the value side of decision problems. Introduces ideas of preferential and utility independence.)Google Scholar
• Nuclear Energy Policy Study GroupNuclear Power Issues and Choices (1977) . Ballinger. (A model of a group policy exercise on an important current, complex problem.)Google Scholar
• Fisher Roger, William Ury. Getting to Yes (1981) . Houghton-Mifflin. (Helps establish the field of negotiations as a growth industry. Sold close to 4 million copies. Emphasis is on negotiating joint gains.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. The Art and Science of Negotiation (1982) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) . (Early attempt to show how analysis can be an integral part of the theory and practice of negotiations.)Google Scholar
• The Committee on Risk and Decision Making (CORADM) Chair: Howard Raiffa) (1982) . Report for the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. (Unpublished report on the status of societal risk analysis that failed to pass peer review.)Google Scholar
• Howard Ronald A., Matheson James. Two-volume set. Strategic Decision Group. The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis (1983) . (Documents the impressive evolution of decision analysis as it developed at Stanford by Ronald Howard and his student disciples.)Google Scholar
• Keeney Ralph L.Value-Focused Thinking (1992) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) . (Stresses the importance of objectives and values in analyzing problems of choice. I think of it as an often neglected and much underdeveloped part of decision analysis. Keeney thinks of it as a new specialty of its own that is separate from decision analysis.)Google Scholar
• Lavalle Irving H., Zeckhauser Richard L., Keeney Ralph L., Sebenius James K. The art and science of Howard Raiffa. Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations (1996) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) Google Scholar
• Zeckhauser Richard J., Keeney Ralph L., Sebenius James K.Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations (1996) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) . (Festschrift in honor of Howard Raiffa.)Google Scholar
• Hammond John S., Keeney Ralph L., Raiffa Howard. Smart Choices (2000) (Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA) . (An attempt to show the universality of decision analysis, broadly interpreted to include value analysis; an emphasis on problem identification and formation. Written for a broad audience. What should have been included in Raiffa (1968) but wasn't.)Google Scholar
• Raiffa Howard. Collaborative Decision Making (2002) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) . In press. (A revision of Raiffa (1982), stressing the analysis of deals in contrast to disputes. It synthesizes the use of individual decision making (as in decision analysis), interactive decision making (as in game theory), and behavioral decision making in the analysis of negotiations (broadly interpreted).)Google Scholar