Human Capital and Strategic Foresight: Evidence from Managers’ Stock Purchases

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/stsc.2024.0328

References

  • Agarwal V, Arisoy YE, Naik NY (2017) Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns. J. Financial Econom. 125(3):491–510.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ahuja G, Coff RW, Lee PM (2005) Managerial foresight and attempted rent appropriation: Insider trading on knowledge of imminent breakthroughs. Strategic Management J. 26(9):791–808.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Arnold IJM, Vrugt EB (2008) Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility. Appl. Financial Econom. 18(17):1425–1440.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bailey EE, Helfat CE (2003) External management succession, human capital, and firm performance: An integrative analysis. Management Decision Econom. 24(4):347–369.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Baker M, Wurgler J (2006) Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns. J. Finance 61(4):1645–1680.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Barnett ML, Starbuck WH, Pant PN (2003) Which dreams come true? Endogeneity, industry structure, and forecasting accuracy. Indust. Corporate Change 12(4):653–672.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Barney J (1986) Strategic factor markets: Expectations, luck, and business strategy. Management Sci. 32(10):1231–1241.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Barr PS, Stimpert JL, Huff AS (1992) Cognitive change, strategic action, and organizational renewal. Strategic Management J. 13(S1):15–36.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Benedetto CA (1999) Identifying the key success factors in new product launch. J. Product Innovation Management 16(6):530–544.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bertrand O, Lumineau F (2016) Partners in crime: The effects of diversity on the longevity of cartels. Acad. Management J. 59(3):983–1008.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Blackwell M, Iacus S, King G, Porro G (2009) CEM: Coarsened exact matching in Stata. Stata J. 9(4):524–546.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Campbell BA, Coff R, Kryscynski D (2012) Rethinking sustained competitive advantage from human capital. Acad. Management Rev. 37(3):376–395.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Carnabuci G, Operti E (2013) Where do firms’ recombinant capabilities come from? Intraorganizational networks, knowledge, and firms’ ability to innovate through technological combination. Strategic Management J. 34(13):1591–1613.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Carpenter MA, Fredrickson JW (2001) Top management teams, global strategic posture, and the moderating role of uncertainty. Acad. Management J. 44(3):533–545.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Castanias RP, Helfat CE (2001) The managerial rents model: Theory and empirical analysis. J. Management 27(6):661–678.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chatman JA, Jehn KA (1994) Assessing the relationship between industry characteristics and organizational culture: How different can you be? Acad. Management J. 37(3):522–553.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chatterjee S, Harrison JS, Bergh DD (2003) Failed takeover attempts, corporate governance and refocusing. Strategic Management J. 24(1):87–96.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chen G, Meyer-Doyle P, Shi W (2021b) Hedge fund investor activism and human capital loss. Strategic Management J. 42(12):2328–2354.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chen C, Martin X, Wang X (2013) Insider trading, litigation concerns, and auditor going-concern opinions. Accounting Rev. 88(2):365–393.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chen G, Huang S, Meyer-Doyle P, Mindruta D (2021a) Generalist versus specialist CEOS and acquisitions: Two-sided matching and the impact of CEO characteristics on firm outcomes. Strategic Management J. 42(6):1184–1214.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clarke J, Dunbar C, Kahle KM (2001) Long-run performance and insider trading in completed and concealed seasoned equity offerings. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 36(4):415–430.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cockburn IM, Henderson RM, Stern S (2000) Untangling the origins of competitive advantage. Strategic Management J. 21(10–11):1123–1145.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Coff RW, Lee PM (2003) Insider trading as a vehicle to appropriate rent from R&D. Strategic Management J. 24(2):183–190.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Coff RW, Lee PM (2007) Insider trading as a path to competitive advantage? Strategic Organ. 5(1):71–78.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Crook TR, Todd SY, Combs JG, Woehr DJ, Ketchen DJ (2011) Does human capital matter? A meta-analysis of the relationship between human capital and firm performance. J. Appl. Psychol. 96(3):443–456.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Crossland C, Zyung J, Hiller NJ, Hambrick DC (2014) CEO career variety: Effects on firm-level strategic and social novelty. Acad. Management J. 57(3):652–674.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Csaszar FA (2012) Organizational structure as a determinant of performance: Evidence from mutual funds. Strategic Management J. 33(6):611–632.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Csaszar FA, Laureiro-Martínez D (2018) Individual and organizational antecedents of strategic foresight: A representational approach. Strategy Sci. 3(3):513–532.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Csaszar FA, Levinthal DA (2016) Mental representation and the discovery of new strategies. Strategic Management J. 37(10):2031–2049.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cummings T, Knott AM (2018) Outside CEOs and innovation. Strategic Management J. 39(8):2095–2119.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Custódio C, Ferreira MA, Matos P (2013) Generalists versus specialists: Lifetime work experience and chief executive officer pay. J. Financial Econom. 108(2):471–492.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Custódio C, Ferreira MA, Matos P (2019) Do general managerial skills spur innovation? Management Sci. 65(2):459–476.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Dane E (2010) Reconsidering the trade-off between expertise and flexibility: A cognitive entrenchment perspective. Acad. Management Rev. 35(4):579–603. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Danneels E (2002) The dynamics of product innovation and firm competencies. Strategic Management J. 23(12):1095–1121.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dechow PM, Lawrence A, Ryans JP (2016) SEC comment letters and insider sales. Accounting Rev. 91(2):401–439.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • de Figueiredo RJP, Meyer-Doyle P, Rawley E (2013) Inherited agglomeration effects in hedge fund spawns. Strategic Management J. 34(7):843–862.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dencker JC, Gruber M, Shah SK (2009) Individual and opportunity factors influencing job creation in new firms. Acad. Management J. 52(6):1125–1147.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dokko G, Wilk SL, Rothbard NP (2009) Unpacking prior experience: How career history affects job performance. Organ. Sci. 20(1):51–68.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Ehrig T, Schmidt J (2021) Making biased but better predictions: The trade-offs strategists face when they learn and use heuristics. Strategic Organ. 19(2):263–284.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • El-Zayaty A, Ganco M (2025) On the waves of change: The burden of knowledge and strategic human capital. Strategic Management Rev. Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, 1–42.Google Scholar
  • Evans RB, Prado MP, Rizzo AE, Zambrana R (2025) Identity, diversity, and team performance: Evidence from US mutual funds. Management Sci. 71(4):3026–3051.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Fergnani A (2022) Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Acad. Management Perspect. 36(2):820–844.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fernandes M, Medeiros M, Scharth M (2014) Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index. J. Banking Finance 40:1–10. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gaba V, Joseph J (2013) Corporate structure and performance feedback: Aspirations and adaptation in M-form firms. Organ. Sci. 24(4):1102–1119.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Gaba V, Lee S, Meyer-Doyle P, Zhao-Ding A (2023) Prior experience of managers and maladaptive responses to performance feedback: Evidence from mutual funds. Organ. Sci. 34(2):894–915.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Gary MS, Wood RE (2011) Mental models, decision rules, and performance heterogeneity. Strategic Management J. 32(6):569–594.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gathmann C, Schönberg U (2010) How general is human capital? A task‐based approach. J. Labor Econom. 28(1):1–49.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gavetti G, Menon A (2016) Evolution cum agency: Toward a model of strategic foresight. Strategy Sci. 1(3):207–233.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Gavetti G, Levinthal DA, Rivkin JW (2005) Strategy making in novel and complex worlds: The power of analogy. Strategic Management J. 26(8):691–712.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Greenwood BN, Agarwal R, Agarwal R, Gopal A (2019) The role of individual and organizational expertise in the adoption of new practices. Organ. Sci. 30(1):191–213.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Haas MR, Ham W (2015) Microfoundations of knowledge recombination: Peripheral knowledge and breakthrough innovation in teams. Adv. Strategic Management 32:47–87.Google Scholar
  • Haleblian J, Finkelstein S (1999) The influence of organization acquisition experience on acquisition performance: A behavioral learning perspective. Admin. Sci. Quart. 44(1):29–56.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Harrison DA, Klein KJ (2007) What’s the difference? Diversity constructs as separation, variety, or display in organizations. Acad. Management Rev. 32(4):1199–1228.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • He VF, von Krogh G, Siren C (2022) Expertise diversity, informal leadership hierarchy, and team knowledge creation: A study of pharmaceutical research collaborations. Organ. Stud. 43(6):907–930.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Helfat CE, Martin JA (2014) Dynamic managerial capabilities: Review and assessment of managerial impact on strategic change. J. Management 41(5):1281–1312.Google Scholar
  • Helfat CE, Peteraf MA (2015) Managerial cognitive capabilities and the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities. Strategic Management J. 36(6):831–850.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hempelmann F, Engelen A (2015) Integration of finance with marketing and R&D in new product development: The role of project stage. J. Product Innovation Management 32(4):636–654.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Heshmati M, Csaszar FA (2024) Learning strategic representations: Exploring the effects of taking a strategy course. Organ. Sci. 35(2):453–473.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Jagolinzer AD, Larcker DF, Ormazabai G, Taylor DJ (2020) Political connections and the informativeness of insider trades. J. Finance 75(4):1833–1876.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jones BF (2009) The burden of knowledge and the “death of the renaissance man”: Is innovation getting harder? Rev. Econom. Stud. 76(1):283–317.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kapoor R, Wilde D (2022) Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight. Strategic Management J. 44(3):704–736.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kim S, Lee G, Kang H-G (2021) Risk management and corporate social responsibility. Strategic Management J. 42(1):202–230.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Koh P, Reeb DM (2015) Missing R&D. J. Accounting Econom. 60(1):73–94.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kor YY (2003) Experience-based top management team competence and sustained growth. Organ. Sci. 14(6):707–719.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lakonishok J, Lee I (2001) Are insider trades informative? Rev. Financial Stud. 14(1):79–111.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lee S, Csaszar FA (2020) Cognitive and structural antecedents of innovation: A large-sample study. Strategy Sci. 5(2):71–97.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Li M, Patel PC (2019) Jack of all, master of all? CEO generalist experience and firm performance. Leadership Quart. 30(3):320–334.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Loughran T, Vijh AM (1997) Do long‐term shareholders benefit from corporate acquisitions? J. Finance 52(5):1765–1790.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Luan S, Reb J, Gigerenzer G (2019) Ecological rationality: Fast-and-frugal heuristics for managerial decision making under uncertainty. Acad. Management J. 62(6):1735–1759.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Makadok R, Barney JB (2001) Strategic factor market intelligence: An application of information economics to strategy formulation and competitor intelligence. Management Sci. 47(12):1621–1638.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Mannucci PV, Yong K (2018) The differential impact of knowledge depth and knowledge breadth on creativity over individual careers. Acad. Management J. 61(5):1741–1763.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Massa M, Zhang B, Zhang H (2015) The invisible hand of short selling: Does short selling discipline earnings management? Rev. Financial Stud. 28(6):1701–1736.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mayer KJ, Somaya D, Williamson IO (2012) Firm-specific, industry-specific, and occupational human capital and the sourcing of knowledge work. Organ. Sci. 23(5):1311–1329.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Megaritis A, Vlastakis N, Triantafyllou A (2021) Stock market volatility and jumps in times of uncertainty. J. Internat. Money Finance 113:102355. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Meyer-Doyle P, Schumacher C (2019) CEO career variety and firm risk management capabilities. Acad. Management Annual Meeting Proc. 2019(1):16300.Google Scholar
  • Meyer-Doyle P, Lee S, Helfat CE (2019) Disentangling the microfoundations of acquisition behavior and performance. Strategic Management J. 40(11):1733–1756.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Moore PG (1977) The manager’s struggles with uncertainty. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 140(2):129–129.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Oster E (2017) Unobservable selection and coefficient stability: Theory and evidence. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 37(2):187–204.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Palepu K (1985) Diversification strategy, profit performance, and the entropy measure. Strategic Management J. 6(3):239–255.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pástor L, Veronesi P (2012) Uncertainty about government policy and stock prices. J. Finance 67(4):1219–1264.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Peterson A, Wu A (2021) Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management J. 42(13):2357–2388.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Priem RL (2007) A consumer perspective on value creation. Acad. Management Rev. 32(1):219–235.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rabier MR (2017) Acquisition motives and the distribution of acquisition performance. Strategic Management J. 38(13):2666–2681.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Seyhun HN (1986) Insiders’ profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency. J. Financial Econom. 16(2):189–212. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Simon HA (1957) Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organizations, 2nd ed. (Macmillan, New York).Google Scholar
  • Starr E, Ganco M, Campbell BA (2018) Strategic human capital management in the context of cross-industry and within-industry mobility frictions. Strategic Management J. 39(8):2226–2254.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Taylor A, Greve HR (2006) Superman or the fantastic four? Knowledge combination and experience in innovative teams. Acad. Management J. 49(4):723–740.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Teachman JD (1980) Analysis of population diversity: Measures of qualitative variation. Sociol. Methods Res. 8(3):341–362. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Teodoridis F, Bikard M, Vakili K (2019) Creativity at the knowledge frontier: The impact of specialization in fast- and slow-paced domains. Admin. Sci. Quart. 64(4):894–927.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tripsas M, Gavetti G (2000) Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: Evidence from digital imaging. Strategic Management J. 21(10–11):1147–1161.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Uribe JN (2020) Multipoint contact without forbearance? How coverage synergies shape equity analysts’ forecasting performance. Strategic Management J. 41(10):1901–1932.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Vinokurova N, Kapoor R (2020) Converting inventions into innovations in large firms: How inventors at Xerox navigated the innovation process to commercialize their ideas. Strategic Management J. 41(13):2372–2399.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Waldman DA, Ramírez GG, House RJ, Puranam P (2001) Does leadership matter? CEO leadership attributes and profitability under conditions of perceived environmental uncertainty. Acad. Management J. 44(1):134–143.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.