Can LLMs Aid Analogical Reasoning for Strategic Decisions? A Comparative Study

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/stsc.2025.0426

References

  • Battilana J, Obloj T, Pache AC, Sengul M (2022) Beyond shareholder value maximization: Accounting for financial/social trade-offs in dual-purpose companies. Acad. Management Rev. 47(2):237–258.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Blanchette I, Dunbar K (2001) Analogy use in naturalistic settings: The influence of audience, emotion, and goals. Memory Cognition 29(5):730–735.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Brandenburger A (2017) Where do great strategies really come from? Strategy Sci. 2(4):220–225.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Camposampiero G, Hersche M, Wattenhofer R, Sebastian A, Rahimi A (2025) Can large reasoning models do analogical reasoning under perceptual uncertainty? Preprint, submitted March 14, https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.11207.Google Scholar
  • Carroll GR, Sørensen JB (2024) Strategy theory using analogy: Rationale, tools and examples. Strategy Sci. 9(4):483–498.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Choi J, Levinthal D (2023) Wisdom in the wild: Generalization and adaptive dynamics. Organ. Sci. 34(3):1073–1089.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Choudhary V, Marchetti A, Shrestha YR, Puranam P (2025) Human-AI ensembles: When can they work? J. Management 51(2):536–569.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cornelissen JP, Holt R, Zundel M (2011) The role of analogy and metaphor in the framing and legitimization of strategic change. Organ. Stud. 32(12):1701–1716.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Correa JD, Lee S, Bareinboim E (2022) Counterfactual transportability: A formal approach. Proc. Internat. Conf. Machine Learn. (PMLR, New York), 4370–4390.Google Scholar
  • Csaszar FA (2013) An efficient frontier in organization design: Organizational structure as a determinant of exploration and exploitation. Organ. Sci. 24(4):1083–1101.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Cummins DD (1992) Role of analogical reasoning in the induction of problem categories. J. Experiment. Psych. Learn. Memory Cognition 18(5):1103.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • DeepSeek-AI (2024) DeepSeek-V3 technical report. Preprint, submitted December 27, https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.19437.Google Scholar
  • Denrell J (2003) Vicarious learning, undersampling of failure, and the myths of management. Organ. Sci. 14(3):227–243.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Dubey A, Jauhri A, Pandey A, Kadian A, Al-Dahle A, Letman A, Ganapathy R (2024) The Llama 3 herd of models. Preprint, submitted July 31, https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.21783.Google Scholar
  • Duhaime IM, Schwenk CR (1985) Conjectures on cognitive simplification in acquisition and divestment decision making. Acad. Management Rev. 10(2):287–295.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Forbus KD, Gentner D, Law K (1995) MAC/FAC: A model of similarity‐based retrieval. Cognitive Sci. 19(2):141–205.Google Scholar
  • Gary MS, Wood RE, Pillinger T (2012) Enhancing mental models, analogical transfer, and performance in strategic decision making. Strategic Management J. 33(11):1229–1246.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gavetti G, Rivkin JW (2005) How strategists really think. Harvard Bus. Rev. 83(4):54–63.Google Scholar
  • Gavetti G, Rivkin JW (2007) On the origin of strategy: Action and cognition over time. Organ. Sci. 18(3):420–439.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Gavetti G, Levinthal DA, Rivkin JW (2005) Strategy making in novel and complex worlds: The power of analogy. Strategic Management J. 26(8):691–712.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gemma Team (2025) Gemma 3 Technical Report. Preprint, submitted March 25, https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.19786.Google Scholar
  • Gentner D (1983) Structure-mapping: A theoretical framework for analogy. Cognitive Sci. 7(2):155–170.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gentner D, Smith LA (2013) Analogical learning and reasoning. The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).Google Scholar
  • Gentner D, Holyoak KJ, Kokinov BN, eds. (2001) The Analogical Mind: Perspectives from Cognitive Science (MIT Press).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gentner D, Rattermann MJ, Forbus KD (1993) The roles of similarity in transfer: Separating retrievability from inferential soundness. Cognitive Psych. 25(4):524–575.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gick ML, Holyoak KJ (1980) Analogical problem solving. Cognitive Psych. 12(3):306–355.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gick ML, Holyoak KJ (1983) Schema induction and analogical transfer. Cognitive Psych. 15(1):1–38.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gilboa I, Postlewaite A, Samuelson L, Schmeidler D (2014) Economic models as analogies. Econom. J. 124(578):F513–F533.Google Scholar
  • Goldwater MB, Gentner D (2015) On the acquisition of abstract knowledge: Structural alignment and explication in learning causal system categories. Cognition 137:137–153.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Google DeepMind Team (2025) Gemini 2.5: Pushing the frontier with advanced reasoning, multimodality, long context, and next generation agentic capabilities. Preprint, submitted July 7, https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06261.Google Scholar
  • Gui G, Toubia O (2023) The challenge of using LLMs to simulate human behavior: A causal inference perspective. Preprint, submitted December 24, https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.15524.Google Scholar
  • Helfat CE, Peteraf MA (2003) The dynamic resource‐based view: Capability lifecycles. Strategic Management J. 24(10):997–1010.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hofstadter DR (2001) Analogy as the core of cognition. The Analogical Mind: Perspectives from Cognition Science, 499–538.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Holyoak KJ, Koh K (1987) Surface and structural similarity in analogical transfer. Memory Cognition 15(4):332–340.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Holyoak KJ, Thagard PR (1989) Analogical mapping by constraint satisfaction. Cognitive Sci. 13(3):295–355.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Holyoak KJ, Thagard PR (1995) A Cognitive Architecture for Solving Ill-Defined Problems (No. ARIRN9524). https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Keith-Holyoak/publication/235117010_A_Cognitive_Architecture_for_Solving_III-Defined_Problems/links/02bfe513f42693f0f6000000/A-Cognitive-Architecture-for-Solving-III-Defined-Problems.pdf.Google Scholar
  • Jehiel P (2005) Analogy-based expectation equilibrium. J. Econom. Theory 123(2):81–104.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jiang AQ, Sablayrolles A, Mensch A, Bamford C, Chaplot DS, Casas DDL, Sayed WE (2023) Mistral 7B. Preprint, submitted October 10, https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06825.Google Scholar
  • Knudsen T, Levinthal DA, Puranam P (2019) A model is a model. Strategy Sci. 4(1):1–3.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Koçak Ö, Puranam P (2022) Separated by a common language: How the nature of code differences shapes communication success and code convergence. Management Sci. 68(7):5287–5310. LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lave CA, March JG (1975) An Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences (University Press of America, Lanham, MD).Google Scholar
  • Leiblein MJ, Reuer JJ, Zenger T (2018) What makes a decision strategic? Strategy Sci. 3(4):558–573.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Levinthal DA, Schliesmann D (2025) Cautious exploitation: Learning and search in problems of evaluation and discovery. Organ. Sci. 36(2):903–917.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lewis M, Mitchell M (2024) Evaluating the robustness of analogical reasoning in large language models. Preprint, submitted November 21, https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.14215.Google Scholar
  • Lovett A, Forbus K (2017) Modeling visual problem solving as analogical reasoning. Psych. Rev. 124(1):60.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • March JG (1991) How decisions happen in organizations. Human Comput. Interactions 6(2):95–117.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Markman AB, Gentner D (1993) Structural alignment during similarity comparisons. Cognitive Psych. 25(4):431–467.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Miller KD, Lin SJ (2015) Analogical reasoning for diagnosing strategic issues in dynamic and complex environments. Strategic Management J. 36(13):2000–2020.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Navis C, Glynn MA (2011) Legitimate distinctiveness and the entrepreneurial identity: Influence on investor judgments of new venture plausibility. Acad. Management Rev. 36(3):479–499.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Olguín MV, Tavernini LM, Trench M, Minervino RA (2022) The effect of surface similarities on the retrieval of analogous daily-life events. Memory Cognition 50(7):1399–1413.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • OpenAI (2023) GPT-4 technical report. Preprint, submitted March 15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774.Google Scholar
  • OpenAI (2025) OpenAI o3-mini System Card. OpenAI (January 31), https://cdn.openai.com/o3-mini-system-card-feb10.pdf.Google Scholar
  • OpenRouter (2025) OpenRouter API and models catalog. Retrieved October 29, https://openrouter.ai/models.Google Scholar
  • Pan SJ, Tsang IW, Kwok JT, Yang Q (2010) Domain adaptation via transfer component analysis. IEEE Trans. Neural Networks 22(2):199–210.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Page SE (2018) The Model Thinker (Basic Books, New York).Google Scholar
  • Pearl J, Bareinboim E (2022) External validity: From do-calculus to transportability across populations. Probabilistic and Causal Inference: The Works of Judea Pearl, 451–482.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Puranam P (2021) Human–AI collaborative decision-making as an organization design problem. J. Organ. Design 10:75–80.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Richland LE, Begolli KN (2016) Analogy and higher order thinking: Learning mathematics as an example. Policy Insights Behav. Brain Sci. 3(2):160–168.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rindova VP, Martins LL (2023) Moral imagination, the collective desirable, and strategic purpose. Strategy Sci. 8(2):170–181.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Santos FM, Eisenhardt KM (2009) Constructing markets and shaping boundaries: Entrepreneurial power in nascent fields. Acad. Management J. 52(4):643–671.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Schilling MA (2018) The cognitive foundations of visionary strategy. Strategy Sci. 3(1):335–342.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Simon HA (1997) Models of Bounded Rationality: Empirically Grounded Economic Reason, vol. 3 (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sun B, Saenko K (2016) Deep coral: Correlation alignment for deep domain adaptation. Proc. Computer Vision–ECCV 2016 Workshops (Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland), 443–450.Google Scholar
  • Tetlock PE (2017) Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We Know? New Edition (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
  • Tripsas M, Gavetti G (2000) Capabilities, cognition, and inertia: Evidence from digital imaging. Strategic Management J. 21(10–11):1147–1161.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tschang FT, Ertug G (2016) New blood as an elixir of youth: Effects of human capital tenure on the explorative capability of aging firms. Organ. Sci. 27(4):873–892.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Vaswani A, Shazeer N, Parmar N, Uszkoreit J, Jones L, Gomez AN, Polosukhin I (2017) Attention is all you need. Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Systems 30.Google Scholar
  • Vendetti MS, Matlen BJ, Richland LE, Bunge SA (2015) Analogical reasoning in the classroom: Insights from cognitive science. Mind Brain Ed. 9(2):100–106.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Webb T, Holyoak KJ, Lu H (2023a) Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models. Nature Human Behav. 7(9):1526–1541.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Webb T, Fu S, Bihl T, Holyoak KJ, Lu H (2023b) Zero-shot visual reasoning through probabilistic analogical mapping. Nature Comm. 14(1):5144.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yasunaga M, Chen X, Li Y, Pasupat P, Leskovec J, Liang P, Zhou D (2023) Large language models as analogical reasoners. Preprint, submitted October 3, https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01714.Google Scholar
  • Yuan S, Chen J, Ge X, Xiao Y, Yang D (2023) Beneath surface similarity: Large language models make reasonable scientific analogies after structure abduction. Preprint, submitted May 22, https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.12660.Google Scholar
  • Zollo M, Winter SG (2002) Deliberate learning and the evolution of dynamic capabilities. Organ. Sci. 13(3):339–351.LinkGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.