AI-Augmented Strategic Decision-Making Under Time Constraints: An Experimental Study on Mental Representations and Strategic Foresight

References

• Adelman L, Miller SL, Henderson D, Schoelles M (2003) Using Brunswikian theory and a longitudinal design to study how hierarchical teams adapt to increasing levels of time pressure. Acta Psychol. 112(2):181–206.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Agrawal A, Gans J, Goldfarb A (2022) Prediction Machines, Updated and Expanded: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence (Harvard Business Review Press, Boston, MA).Google Scholar
• Ahuja G, Coff RW, Lee PM (2005) Managerial foresight and attempted rent appropriation: Insider trading on knowledge of imminent breakthroughs. Strategic Management J. 26(9):791–808.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Anderson BR, Shah JH, Kreminski M (2024) Homogenization effects of large language models on human creative ideation. Proc. 16th Conf. Creativity & Cognition (ACM, New York), 413–425.Google Scholar
• Bafera J, Kleinert S (2023) Signaling theory in entrepreneurship research: A systematic review and research agenda. Entrepreneur. Theory Pract. 47(4):2419–2464. Crossref, Google Scholar
• Baum RJ, Wally S (2003) Strategic decision speed and firm performance. Strategic Management J. 24(11):1107–1129.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Benson L III, Beach LR (1996) The effects of time constraints on the prechoice screening of decision options. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 67(2):222–228.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bettis RA, Hitt MA (1995) The new competitive landscape. Strategic Management J. 16(S1):7–19.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bingham CB, Eisenhardt KM (2011) Rational heuristics: The ‘simple rules’ that strategists learn from process experience. Strategic Management J. 32(13):1437–1464.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bouschery SG, Blazevic V, Piller FT (2023) Augmenting human innovation teams with artificial intelligence: Exploring transformer‐based language models. J. Product Innovation Management 40(2):139–153.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Boussioux L, Lane JN, Zhang M, Jacimovic V, Lakhani KR (2024) The crowdless future? Generative AI and creative problem-solving. Organ. Sci. 35(5):1589–1607.Link, Google Scholar
• Brunswik E (1952) The Conceptual Framework of Psychology (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL).Google Scholar
• Brynjolfsson E, Li D, Raymond L (2025) Generative AI at work. Quart. J. Econom. 140(2):889–942.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Choudhary V, Marchetti A, Shrestha YR, Puranam P (2025) Human-AI ensembles: When can they work? J. Management 51(2):536–569.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA (2018) What makes a decision strategic? Strategic representations. Strategy Sci. 3(4):606–619.Link, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Laureiro-Martínez D (2018) Individual and organizational antecedents of strategic foresight: A representational approach. Strategy Sci. 3(3):513–532.Link, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Levinthal DA (2016) Mental representation and the discovery of new strategies. Strategic Management J. 37(10):2031–2049.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Ostler J (2020) A contingency theory of representational complexity in organizations. Organ. Sci. 31(5):1198–1219.Link, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Steinberger T (2022) Organizations as artificial intelligences: The use of artificial intelligence analogies in organization theory. Acad. Management Ann. 16(1):1–37.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Hinrichs N, Heshmati M (2024a) External representations in strategic decision‐making: Understanding strategy’s reliance on visuals. Strategic Management J. 45(11):2191–2226.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Csaszar FA, Ketkar H, Kim H (2024b) Artificial intelligence and strategic decision-making: Evidence from entrepreneurs and investors. Strategy Sci. 9(4):322–345.Link, Google Scholar
• Dennis JP, Vander Wal JS (2010) The cognitive flexibility inventory: Instrument development and estimates of reliability and validity. Cognitive Therapy Res. 34(3):241–253.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Denovan A, Dagnall N (2019) Development and evaluation of the chronic time pressure inventory. Front. Psychol. 10:2717.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Diamond A (2013) Executive functions. Annual. Rev. Psychol. 64(1):135–168.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Doshi AR, Hauser OP (2024) Generative AI enhances individual creativity but reduces the collective diversity of novel content. Sci. Adv. 10(28):1–9.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Doshi AR, Bell JJ, Mirzayev E, Vanneste BS (2025) Generative artificial intelligence and evaluating strategic decisions. Strategic Management J. 46(3):583–610.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Draxler F, Werner A, Lehmann F, Hoppe M, Schmidt A, Buschek D, Welsch R (2024) The AI ghostwriter effect: When users do not perceive ownership of AI-generated text but self-declare as authors. ACM Trans. Comput.-Human Interact. 31(2):1–40.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Eisenhardt KM (1989) Making fast strategic decisions in high-velocity environments. Acad. Management J. 32(3):543–576.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Felin T, Holweg M (2024) Theory is all you need: AI, human cognition, and causal reasoning. Strategy Sci. 9(4):346–371.Link, Google Scholar
• Gary MS, Wood RE (2011) Mental models, decision rules, and performance heterogeneity. Strategic Management J. 32(6):569–594.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gavetti G (2012) Perspective—Toward a behavioral theory of strategy. Organ. Sci. 23(1):267–285.Link, Google Scholar
• Gavetti G, Menon A (2016) Evolution cum agency: Toward a model of strategic foresight. Strategy Sci. 1(3):207–233.Link, Google Scholar
• Gavetti G, Levinthal D, Ocasio W (2007) Perspective—Neo-Carnegie: The Carnegie school’s past, present, and reconstructing for the future. Organ. Sci. 18(3):523–536.Link, Google Scholar
• Hammond KR (1955) Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. Psychol. Rev. 62(4):255–262.Crossref, Google Scholar
• He VF, Shrestha YR, Puranam P, Miron-Spektor E (2025) Creative together: Human-AI ensembling for idea generation. Working Paper No. 2024-51, INSEAD, France.Google Scholar
• Heshmati M, Csaszar FA (2023) Learning strategic representations: Exploring the effects of taking a strategy course. Organ. Sci. 35(2):453–473.Link, Google Scholar
• Hodgkinson GP, Bown NJ, Maule AJ, Glaister KW, Pearman AD (1999) Breaking the frame: An analysis of strategic cognition and decision making under uncertainty. Strategic Management J. 20(10):977–985.Crossref, Google Scholar
• House RJ, Hanges PJ, Javidan M, Dorfman PW, Gupta V (2004) Culture, Leadership, And Organizations: The GLOBE Study of 62 Societies (SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA).Google Scholar
• Jia N, Luo X, Fang Z, Liao C (2024) When and how artificial intelligence augments employee creativity. Acad. Management J. 67(1):5–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kapoor R, Wilde D (2023) Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight. Strategic Management J. 44(3):704–736.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Karr-Wisniewski P, Lu Y (2010) When more is too much: Operationalizing technology overload and exploring its impact on knowledge worker productivity. Comput. Human Behav. 26(5):1061–1072.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kiss AN, Libaers D, Barr PS, Wang T, Zachary MA (2020) CEO cognitive flexibility, information search, and organizational ambidexterity. Strategic Management J. 41(12):2200–2233.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Klein GA (1993) A recognition-primed decision (RPD) model of rapid decision making. Klein GA, Orasanu J, Calderwood R, Zsambok CE, eds. Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (Ablex Publishing, Norwood, NJ), 138–147.Google Scholar
• Kleinberg J, Raghavan M (2021) Algorithmic monoculture and social welfare. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 118(22):e2018340118.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kosmyna N, Hauptmann E, Yuan YT, Situ J, Liao XH, Beresnitzky AV, Braunstein I, Maes P (2025) Your brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of cognitive debt when using an AI assistant for essay writing task. Preprint, submitted June 10, https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872.Google Scholar
• Laamanen T, Weiser AK, Von Krogh G, Ocasio W (2025) Artificial intelligence in adaptive strategy creation and implementation: Toward enhanced attentional control in strategy processes. Long Range Planning 58(4):102561.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Laureiro‐Martínez D, Brusoni S (2018) Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers. Strategic Management J. 39(4):1031–1058.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lee M, Liang P, Yang Q (2022) Coauthor: Designing a human–AI collaborative writing dataset for exploring language model capabilities. Barbosa S, Lampe C, Appert C, Shamma DA, Drucker S, Williamson J, Yatani K, eds. Proc. 2022 CHI Conf. Human Factors Comput. Systems (ACM, New York), 1–19.Google Scholar
• Marzi G, Balzano M, Marchiori D (2024) K-Alpha calculator–Krippendorff’s alpha calculator: A user-friendly tool for computing Krippendorff’s alpha inter-rater reliability coefficient. MethodsX 12:102545.Crossref, Google Scholar
• McAuley E, Duncan T, Tammen VV (1989) Psychometric properties of the intrinsic motivation inventory in a competitive sport setting: A confirmatory factor analysis. Res. Quart. Exercise Sport 60(1):48–58.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Meade AW, Craig SB (2012) Identifying careless responses in survey data. Psychol. Methods 17(3):437–455.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Milliken FJ (1987) Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Acad. Management Rev. 12(1):133–145.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Moore C, Boswell L, Dekel S, London S, Johnson E (2025) Reinvention on the edge of tomorrow. Report, PwC, London.Google Scholar
• Newell A, Simon HA (1972) Human Problem Solving (Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ).Google Scholar
• Noy S, Zhang W (2023) Experimental evidence on the productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence. Science 381(6654):187–192.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Nutt PC (1998) How decision makers evaluate alternatives and the influence of complexity. Management Sci. 44(8):1148–1166.Link, Google Scholar
• Ordóñez L, Benson L III (1997) Decisions under time pressure: How time constraint affects risky decision making. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes 71(2):121–140.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Padmakumar V, He H (2023) Does writing with language models reduce content diversity? Preprint, submitted September 11, https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.05196.Google Scholar
• Payne JW, Bettman JR, Johnson EJ (1988) Adaptive strategy selection in decision making. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Memory Cognition 14(3):534–552.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Peterson A, Wu A (2021) Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management J. 42(13):2357–2388.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pierce JL, Kostova T, Dirks KT (2001) Toward a theory of psychological ownership in organizations. Acad. Management Rev. 26(2):298–310.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pierce JL, Rubenfeld SA, Morgan S (1991) Employee ownership: A conceptual model of process and effects. Acad. Management Rev. 16(1):121–144.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pollack JM, Rutherford MW, Nagy BG (2012) Preparedness and cognitive legitimacy as antecedents of new venture funding in televised business pitches. Entrep. Theory Practice 36(5):915–939.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Porter ME (1979) How competitive forces shape strategy. Harvard Bus. Rev. 57(2):137–145.Google Scholar
• Raisch S, Fomina K (2025) Combining human and artificial intelligence: Hybrid problem-solving in organizations. Acad. Management Rev. 50(2):441–464.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Raisch S, Krakowski S (2021) Artificial intelligence and management: The automation–Augmentation paradox. Acad. Management Rev. 46(1):192–210.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Reutskaja E, Nagel R, Camerer CF, Rangel A (2011) Search dynamics in consumer choice under time pressure: An eye-tracking study. Amer. Econom. Rev. 101(2):900–926.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Scoblic JP, Tetlock PE (2020) A better crystal ball: The right way to think about the future. Foreign Affairs 99(6):10–19.Google Scholar
• Shrestha YR, Ben-Menahem SM, von Krogh G (2019) Organizational decision-making structures in the age of artificial intelligence. California Management Rev. 61(4):66–83.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Simon HA (1987) Making management decisions: The role of intuition and emotion. Acad. Management Perspect. 1(1):57–64.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Simon HA (1997) Administrative Behavior, 4th ed. (Free Press, New York).Google Scholar
• Tetlock PE (2017) Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can we Know? New ed. (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
• Tetlock PE, Gardner D (2015) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Crown Publishers, New York).Google Scholar
• Tetlock PE, Mellers BA, Rohrbaugh N, Chen E (2014) Forecasting tournaments: Tools for increasing transparency and improving the quality of debate. Current Directions Psychol. Sci. 23(4):290–295.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tversky A, Kahneman D (1973) Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychol. 5(2):207–232.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Van Dyne L, Pierce JL (2004) Psychological ownership and feelings of possession: Three field studies predicting employee attitudes and organizational citizenship behavior. J. Organ. Behav. 25(4):439–459.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Weiser A, Von Krogh G (2023) Artificial intelligence and radical uncertainty. Eur. Management Rev. 20(4):711–717.Crossref, Google Scholar