What Are the Odds? A Structured Approach for Unstructured Problems

Decision makers are often faced with ill-defined problems such as determining the odds of unlikely occurrences. However, class settings often explicitly provide such values within problem sets or case studies. In this paper, we discuss an incident of a waitress at a bar being shown her own stolen identification. Using this problem, we motivate the use of mathematical modeling to decompose a problem to determine the odds of a rare event. Similar problem decomposition methods can be used in a variety of business and engineering problems.