A Simulation Model for Predicting Yacht Match Race Outcomes

We outline the development of a model for predicting the outcome of a yacht match race between two competing designs. The model is a fixed-time-increment simulation that accounts for the dynamic performance of each yacht. The wind speed and direction are modelled using hidden Markov chain models. Each yacht is assumed to follow a fixed sailing strategy determined by a set of simple decision rules. The simulation models both yachts simultaneously and accounts for interactions between them—for example, when they cross. The model is illustrated by applying it to International America's Cup Class designs.