On Hedging and TRIAD Force Levels

The strategic forces of the United States collectively form a TRIAD of three components consisting of ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers. To guard against the catastrophic (total) loss of any one component, the TRIAD could be structured so that the combined capability of the two remaining components is sufficient to perform the basic TRIAD mission. With respect to this assumed hedging concept and based upon an idealized model construct, component force level requirements are derived as measured by the fraction of the mission each individual component should be able to accomplish on its own. The analysis is generalized to include combined force postures of fewer or more components. A simple cost structure for the acquisition and maintenance of individual components is introduced, permitting comparison of systems comprising two, three, four, and more components, in terms of their total costs to achieve the mission while providing the desired hedge.