Sensitivity Theory and Its Application to a Large Energy-Economics Model

This paper discusses a nonlinear equation theory of sensitivity analysis and demonstrates its applicability to a large energy-economics model by applying it to a specific calculation carried out with the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP). It presents numerical results for calculating derivatives of two results of interest with respect to several values of the underlying data elements for which the derivatives are appreciable. In a number of cases, the accuracy of the derivative information obtained has been verified by direct calculations and these comparisons are also presented. The theory used here is, in principle, applicable to a variety of models. It is most useful when applied to models that contain a very large number of data elements.