Some Reliability Models for Safety Assessment

This paper discusses probabilistic models of safety assessment, as applied to nuclear reactors. It compares the “per demand failure rate” method for calculating the annual probability of a reactor accident with an equally reasonable event sequencing model. One aspect of safety analysis is formulated as a maximum mark problem in a marked point process. We also introduce a concept of rare events that yields special computing formulas similar to those employed by practicing engineers. Implications for quantifying the safety of nuclear reactors are discussed.