Prediction of First-Cruise Reenlistment Rate

First-term reenlistment rates were not recorded in the Navy prior to 1953. However, it has been found possible to estimate retention rates for yearly or quarterly entry groups of recruits back to 1936. These rates approximate the reenlistment rates at the end of the first term and vary from a high of 80.8 per cent for 1936 to 1.6 per cent for 1944. However, the number reenlisting each year remains remarkably constant. Thus the reenlistment rate is very heavily influenced by the size of the entry group, since increasing the size of the entry group increases the denominator of the rate much faster than it increases the numerator. A method was developed for removing the effect of the entry-group size, making it possible to extrapolate from one period to another with considerable accuracy. Simple linear projection is subject to very large errors as the uncorrected rate can change tremendously from one year to the next. The corrected reenlistment rate has been remarkably constant for twenty years. It has varied between 12 and 19 per cent except during periods of no Selective Service when it has been as high as 35.1 per cent. The early flood of volunteers after Korea temporarily dropped the rate to as low as 7.9 per cent for the group enlisted during the third quarter of 1950. In years of small quotas, waiting lists are long and there is little active recruiting. Thus, the recruits are largely those strongly enough motivated to come in on their own and wait some time to be accepted Consequently, the group as a whole will have a high degree of career motivation and a high reenlistment rate. In years when quotas are large, active selling and many extrinsic incentives are required to meet quotas, and the additional recruits do not have as much career motivation as those easier to recruit.