A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Number of Potential Conflict Situations at Intersecting Air Routes

A mathematical model is developed for predicting the expected number of potential conflict situations at the intersection of air routes. Given the intersection angle of two routes and the average flows and speeds of aircraft, the model predicts the average number of potential conflict situations per unit of time. A concept of intersection capacity based on conflict situations is introduced, and a mathematical model of intersection capacity is developed. The models can be used in planning air route network geometry, as well as in providing guidelines to the establishment of suitable levels of traffic flow along various routes.