Preferred Scenarios in the Sport of Curling

In the sport of curling, participants continually debate this question: In the latter stages of a game, is it better for a team to be trailing by one point yet have the last shot, or ahead by one point without the last shot? Based on results from over 900 Canadian men’s national championship games, we found that it is better for a team to be ahead by one point without the last shot. We surveyed world-class curlers to determine their preferences and probability estimates for given outcomes and discovered that several of these participants have disparate preferences and probability estimates.