A Markovian Analysis of a Geriatric Ward

This paper evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a specialized geriatric program in a California mental hospital by analyzing the movement of patients into, through, and out of the program. The procedure for modelling the patients' movements between states with a Markov chain is detailed and the results analyzed. First passage times, long-term trends, and stay times until death are derived as well as the associated costs the hospital must endure. Lastly, ways to simulate the effect of possible program modifications are illustrated.