Firm's Forecasts of Engineering Employment

In this paper we present data concerning the accuracy of firm's forecasts of engineering employment and suggest a simple model that may be of use in improving their accuracy. The results, which pertain to 54 firms in the aerospace, electronics, chemical, and oil industries, should be of use to managers, because the formulation of proper manpower policies clearly depends on the precision of such forecasts. Our approach also may be applicable to personnel other than engineers: better forecasts may result from the application of this simple model.