Lanchester Models of Guerrilla Engagements

This paper develops a set of Lanchester-type equations modeling small-force guerrilla engagements that are typical of the early stages of insurgency. These equations include the effects of supporting weapons and the discipline or morale of the troops involved. The novelty of this treatment from the mathematical point of view is the use of time-dependent weapon-efficiency coefficients. Although the models and theory are not adequate to predict the outcome of an insurgency, they should prove useful for examining the credibility of casualty claims associated with such conflict. In addition, the models provide useful insight regarding the important attack parameters of guerrilla warfare. In some cases, notably those concerning ambushes, the theory suggests new military hardware that in the past has been difficult to justify on analytical grounds.