A Force Effectiveness Model with Area Defense of Targets

This paper describes an analytic method for computing the effectiveness of an ICBM force for the assured destruction mission, in which the missile force must attack a number of targets of different value, all protected by a fully preferential area defense. Some targets may also be protected by a terminal defense. The ICBM force is assumed to be composed of several types of re-entry vehicles that differ in lethality and in the numbers of area and terminal interceptors required for intercept. The model assumptions are offense-conservative in that the defense is credited with maximum information and capability. However, the offense allocation is optimum against the best cooperative use of the area and terminal defenses so that the computed force effectiveness is offense-enforceable. The paper derives the optimum employment of the missile force and the area defense, and proves that, in the presence of an area defense, the terminal interceptor stockpile should be allocated among terminally defended targets strictly in proportion to their value. Because of its simplicity, the inclusion of defense penetration parameters, the allowance for several types of re-entry vehicles, and its two levels of defense, the model is useful as a force-evaluation submodel in force-mix, force-defense, and re-entry-vehicle configuration studies.