Effectiveness Determination of Bombers Penetrating Through an Air-to-Air Defense

This model determines the attrition of the forces and the expected value of the number of targets receiving at least one air-to-ground weapon in a conflict between bombers that may carry lethal defense weapons and/or decoys and interceptors, each of which may fly several multiple-pass sorties during the course of the battle. Analytical results are presented for the case where the bomber's supply of defensive weapons can be assumed to be infinite, i.e., each bomber always has a defensive weapon when one is needed. A Monte Carlo model is discussed and some results are given for the case where the bombers may run out of defensive weapons. A rule of thumb is given to determine the required number of defensive weapons per bomber so that the analytical results approximate the Monte Carlo results.