A Study of the Logical Basis of Combat Simulation

The object of this study is the analytic or computer-simulation model, used increasingly in analyses of combat, tactical and weapon-systems evaluation, etc. The thesis is that whenever the method yields quantitative results, it achieves these by setting the computer (or the analytic formulation) in states supposed to correspond to those in the combat, and programming a rule of transitions from state to state—picturing what is occurring in the combat. The transition rule may be deterministic or probabilistic, the latter usually by Monte Carlo selection; but the probabilities are always treated as known. This shows that the combat is assumed (explicitly or implicitly) to act as a stochastic process of the changes of state of a system. The computational procedure used implies further assumptions, which imply, in turn, that it is Markovian (directly, or after a transformation). After bringing out these facts, the necessary conditions for their validity are explored. One is the removal, by conventionalization, of the otherwise statistically indeterminate human decisions. Then the use of the full strength of the stochastic assumptions by more powerful mathematics than the conventional simulations is examined. The generalities are exemplified by endgames and a detection-destruction duel, studied in detail.