Improving on Bold Play at Craps

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.35.6.814

We derive heuristically a strategy we believe to be nearly optimal at craps (in the sense of maximizing the probability of reaching a specified goal). We then prove rigorously (with the aid of a computer) that this strategy is superior to bold play on “don't pass,” regardless of the ratio of one's initial fortune to one's goal.

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