Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?

References

• Abarbanell J. S., Lehavy R. Biased forecasts or biased earnings? The role of earnings management in explaining apparent optimism and inefficiency in analysts’ earnings forecasts. J. Accounting Econom. (2003) 36(1–3):105–146Crossref, Google Scholar
• Barber B., Odean T. Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. Quart. J. Econom. (2001) 1:261–292Crossref, Google Scholar
• Barberis N., Huang M. Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns. J. Finance (2001) 56:1247–1292Crossref, Google Scholar
• Beckman L. Effect on student’s performance on teachers’ and observers’ attribution of causality. J. Ed. Psych. (1970) 61:76–82Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bloomfield R. J., Libby R., Nelson M. W. Underreactions, overreactions and moderated confidence. J. Financial Markets (2000) 3:113–137Crossref, Google Scholar
• Daniel K., Hirshleifer D., Subrahmanyam A. Investor psychology and security market under- and over-reactions. J. Finance (1998) 53(5):1839–1886Crossref, Google Scholar
• DeBondt W. F. M., Thaler R. M. Do security analysts overreact? Amer. Econom. Rev. (1990) 80:52–57Google Scholar
• Easterwood J. C., Nutt S. R. Inefficiency in analysts’ earnings forecasts: Systematic misreaction or systematic optimism. J. Finance (1999) 1777–1797Crossref, Google Scholar
• Erev I., Wallsten T. S., Budescu D. V. Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psych. Rev. (1994) 101:519–528Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fama E. F., French K. R. Forecasting profitability and earnings. J. Bus. (2000) 73(2):161–175Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fama E. F., MacBeth J. D. Risk, return and equilibrium: Empirical tests. J. Political Econom. (1973) 81:607–636Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fiske S., Taylor S. E.Social Cognition (1991) (McGraw Hill, New York) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fitch G. Effect of self-esteem, perceived performance, choice on causal attributions. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1970) 16:311–315Crossref, Google Scholar
• Francis J., Philbrick D. Analysts’ decisions as products of a multi-task environment. J. Accounting Res. (1993) 31:216–230Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gervais S., Odean T. Learning to be overconfident. Rev. Financial Stud. (2001) 14(1):1–27Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gu Z., Wu J. S. Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias. J. Accounting Econom. (2003) 35(1):1–116Crossref, Google Scholar
• Harvey N., Harries C., Fischer I. Using advice and assessing its quality. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2000) 81:252–273Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hastorf A., Schneider D., Polefka J.Person Perception (1970) (Addison-Wesley, Reading, PA) Google Scholar
• Hong H., Kubik J. D., Solomon A. Security analysts’ career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts. RAND J. Econom. (2000) 31(1):121–144Crossref, Google Scholar
• Huck S., Oechssler J. Informational cascade in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons. J. Econom. Psych. (2000) 21:661–671Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hung A., Plott C. Information cascades: Replication and an extension to majority rule and conformity rewarding institutions. Amer. Econom. Rev. (2001) 91(5):1508–1520Crossref, Google Scholar
• Jacob J., Lys T. Z., Neale M. A. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts. J. Accounting Econom. (1999) 28:51–82Crossref, Google Scholar
• Johnson T. J., Feigenbaum R., Weiby M. Some determinants and consequences of the teachers’ perception of causation. J. Ed. Psych. (1964) 55:237–246Crossref, Google Scholar
• Klayman J., Soll J. B., Gonzalez-Vallejo C., Barlas S. Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1999) 79(3):216–247Crossref, Google Scholar
• Koehler D. J., Brenner L., Griffin D., Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. Heuristics and Biases (2002) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kraemer C., Noeth M., Weber M. Information aggregation with costly information and random ordering: Experimental evidence. J. Econom. Behav. Organ. (2006) 59(3):423–432Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kukla A. Attribution determinants of achievement-related behavior. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1972) 21:197–207Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kunda Z. The case for motivated reasoning. Psych. Bull. (1990) 108(3):480–498Crossref, Google Scholar
• Larrick R. P., Soll J. B. Strategies for revising judgement. (2004) . Working paper, Duke University, Durham, NCGoogle Scholar
• Mikhail M. B., Walther B. R., Willis R. H. The development of expertise: Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? J. Accounting Res. (1997) 3:131–157Crossref, Google Scholar
• Miller D. T. Ego involvement and attributions for success and failures. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1976) 434:901–906Crossref, Google Scholar
• Phillips D. J., Zuckerman E. W. Middle-status conformity: Theoretical restatement and empirical demonstration in two markets. Amer. J. Sociology (2001) 107(2):379–429Crossref, Google Scholar
• Richardson S., Hong Teoh S., Wysocki P. The walkdown to beatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives. Contemporary Accounting Res. (2004) 21(4):885–924Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sinha P., Brown L. D., Das S. A re-examination of financial analysts’ differential earnings forecasts accuracy. Contemporary Accounting Res. (1997) 14(1):1–42Crossref, Google Scholar
• Weiner B., Kukla A. An attributional analysis of achievement motivation. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1970) 15:1–20Crossref, Google Scholar
• Yaniv I. Receiving other people’s advice: Influence and benefit. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2004) 94(1):1–13Crossref, Google Scholar