Affect, Empathy, and Regressive Mispredictions of Others’ Preferences Under Risk

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0490

References

  • Ames D. R. Inside the mind reader’s tool kit: Projection and stereotyping in mental state inference. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (2004) 87(3):340–353CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ames D. R., Flynn F. J., Weber E. U. It’s the thought that counts: On perceiving how helpers decide to lend a hand. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (2004) 30(4):461–474CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Arkes H. Costs and benefits of judgment errors. Psych. Bull. (1991) 111:486–498CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bleichrodt H., Pinto J. L., Wakker P. Making descriptive use of prospect theory to improve the prescriptive use of expected utility. Management Sci. (2001) 47(11):1498–1514LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Brandstatter E., Kuhberger A., Schneider F. A cognitive-emotional account of the shape of the probability weighting function. J. Behavioral Decision Making (2002) 15(2):79–100CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Carmon Z., Ariely D. Focusing on the forgone: How value can appear so different to buyers and sellers. J. Consumer Res. (2000) 27(3):360–370CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chambers J. R., Windschitl P. D., Suls J. Egocentrism, event frequency, and comparative optimism: When what happens frequently is “more likely to happen to me. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (2003) 29(11):1343–1356CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Damasio A.Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain (1994) (Putnam, New York) Google Scholar
  • Davis M. H. Measuring individual differences in empathy: Evidence for a multidimensional approach. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1983) 44:113–126CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dawes R. M. Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect. J. Experiment. Soc. Psych. (1989) 25(1):1–17CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Epley N., Keysar B., Van Boven L., Gilovich T. Perspective taking as egocentric anchoring and adjustment. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (2004) 87(3):327–339CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fischhoff B., Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. Debiasing. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1982) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) 422–444CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Friedman M. The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. (1937) 32:675–701CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gilboa I., Schmeidler D.A Theory of Case-Based Decisions (1999) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Google Scholar
  • Goldstein W., Weber E., Busemeyer J., Medin D. L., Hastie R. Content and discontent: Indications and implications of domain specificity in preferential decision making. Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective (1995) Vol. 32(Academic Press, San Diego, CA) 83–126CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hershey J. C., Baron J. Clinical reasoning and cognitive processes. Medical Decision Making (1987) 7:203–211CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hoch S. J. Perceived consensus and predictive accuracy: The pros and cons of projection. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1987) 53(2):221–234CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hsee C. K., Weber E. U. A fundamental prediction error: Self-other differences in risk preferences. J. Experiment. Psych.—General (1997) 126(1):45–53CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hsee C. K., Weber E. U. Cross-national differences in risk preferences and lay predictions for the differences. J. Behavioral Decision Making (1999) 12:165–179CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kahneman D., Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica (1979) 47(2):263–291CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Klein G., Orasanu J., Calderwood R.Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (1993) (Ablex, Norwood, NJ) Google Scholar
  • Klein G., Wolf S., Militello L., Zsambok C. Characteristics of skilled option generation in chess. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1995) 62:63–69CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Krueger J., Clement R. W. The truly false consensus effect: An ineradicable and egocentric bias in social perception. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1994) 67(4):596–610CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kruger J., Burrus J. Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism). J. Experiment. Soc. Psych. (2004) 40(3):332–340CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Larrick R. P., Koehler D. J., Harvey N. Debiasing. Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (2004) (Blackwell, Oxford, UK) 316–337CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Loewenstein G. Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1996) 65(3):272–292CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Loewenstein G., Adler D. A bias in the prediction of tastes. Econom. J. (1995) 105:929–937Google Scholar
  • Loewenstein G., Weber E. U., Hsee C. K., Welch E. S. Risk as feelings. Psych. Bull. (2001) 127:267–286CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • March J., Heath C.A Primer on Decision Making (1994) (Free Press, New York) Google Scholar
  • Marks G., Miller N. Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: An empirical and theoretical review. Psych. Bull. (1987) 102(1):72–90CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mellers B. Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences. Psych. Bull. (2000) 126(6):910–924CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mellers B., Schwartz A., Ritov I. Emotion-based choice. J. Experiment. Psych.—General (1999) 128:332–345CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mussweiler T., Strack F., Pfeiffer T. Overcoming the inevitable anchoring effect: Considering the opposite compensates for selective accessibility. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (2000) 26:1142–1150CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Payne J., Bettman J., Schkade D. Measuring constructed preferences: Towards a building code. J. Risk Uncertainty (1999) 19(1):243–270CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pennington N., Hastie R. Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment. J. Experiment. Psych.: Learn., Memory, Cognition (1988) 14:521–533CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pennington N., Hastie R., Klein G., Orasanu J., Calderwood R., Zsambok C. A theory of explanation-based decision making. Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (1993) (Ablex, Norwood, NJ) 188–201Google Scholar
  • Peters E., Slovic P. The springs of action: Affective and analytical information processing in choice. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (2000) 26(12):1465–1475CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rettinger D., Hastie R. Content effects on decision making. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2001) 85:336–359CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ross L., Greene D., House P. The false consensus effect: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. J. Experiment. Soc. Psych. (1977) 13(3):279–301CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rottenstreich Y., Hsee C. K. Money, kisses and electric shocks: On the affective psychology of risk. Psych. Sci. (2001) 12(3):185–190CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Shapira Z.Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective (1997) (Russell Sage Foundation, New York) Google Scholar
  • Siegrist M., Cvetkovich G., Gutscher H. Risk preference predictions and gender stereotypes. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2002) 87(1):91–102CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sinaceur M., Heath C., Cole S. Emotional and deliberative reactions to a public crisis: Mad Cow Disease in France. Psych. Sci. (2005) 16(3):247–254CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Slovic P. Perception of risk. Science (1987) 236(4799):280–285CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Slovic P., Finucane M., Peters E., MacGregor D. G., Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. The affect heuristic. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2002a) (Cambridge University Press)397–420CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Slovic P., Finucane M., Peters E., MacGregor D. G. Rational actors or rational fools: Implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics. J. Socio-Econom. (2002b) 31(4):329–342CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tversky A., Fox C. Weighing risk and uncertainty. Psych. Rev. (1995) 102:269–283CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tversky A., Kahneman D. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. J. Bus. (1986) 59(4):251–278CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Van Boven L., Loewenstein G. Social projection of transient drive states. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (2003) 29(9):1159–1168CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Van Boven L., Dunning D., Loewenstein G. Egocentric empathy gaps between owners and buyers: Misperception of the endowment effect. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (2000) 79(1):66–76CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Weber E. U. From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effects of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. Psych. Bull. (1994) 115:228–242CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Weber E. U., Hsee C. K. Cross-cultural differences in risk perception but cross-cultural similarities in attitudes towards risk. Management Sci. (1998) 44:1205–1217LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Weber E. U., Hsee C. K. Models and mosaics: Investigation of cultural differences in risk perception and risk preference. Psychonomic Bull. Rev. (1999) 6:611–617CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Weber E. U., Ames D., Blais A. -R. “How do I choose thee? Let me count the ways:” A textual analysis of similarities and differences in modes of decision making in China and the United States. Management Organ. Rev. (2005) 1(1):87–118CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Windschitl P. D., Wells G. L. The alternative-outcomes effect. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1998) 75(6):1411–1423CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Windschitl P. D., Young M. E. The influence of alternative outcomes on gut-level perceptions of certainty. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2001) 85(1):109–134CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wu G. Anxiety and decision making with delayed resolution of uncertainty. Theory and Decision (1999) 46:159–198CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wu G., Heath C., Knez M. A timidity error in evaluations: Evaluators judge others to be too risk averse. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2003) 90:50–62CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zeelenberg M., van Dijk W., Manstead A., van der Pligt J. On bad decisions and disconfirmed expectancies: The psychology of regret and disappointment. Cognition Emotion (2000) 14(4):521–541CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.