Disentangling the Effects of Ad Tone on Voter Turnout and Candidate Choice in Presidential Elections

References

• Anderson SP, Ciliberto F, Liaukonyte J, Renault R (2016) Push-me pull-you: Comparative advertising in the OTC analgesics industry. RAND J. Econom. 47(4):1029–1056.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Angrist J, Pischke J-S (2009) Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ansolabehere S, Iyengar S (1995) Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate (Free Press, New York).Google Scholar
• Ashworth S, Clinton JD (2007) Does advertising exposure affect turnout? Quart. J. Polit. Sci. 2(1):27–42.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Baumeister RF, Bratslavsky E, Finkenauer C, Vohs KD (2001) Bad is stronger than good. Rev. Gen. Psych. 5(4):323–370.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C (2014) High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econom. Perspect. 28(2):29–50.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Belloni A, Chen D, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C (2012) Sparse models and methods for optimal instruments with an application to eminent domain. Econometrica 80(6):2369–2429.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Berry ST (1994) Estimating discrete-choice models of product differentiation. RAND J. Econom. 25(2):242–262.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Berry S, Haile P (2016) Identification in differentiated products markets. Annu. Rev. Econom. 8:27–52.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Biersack B (2018) 8 years later: How citizens united changed campaign finance. Opensecrets.org (February 7), https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/02/how-citizens-united-changed-campaign-finance/.Google Scholar
• Cacioppo JT, Gardner WL, Berntson GG (1997) Beyond bipolar conceptualizations and measures: The case of attitudes and evaluative space. Personality Soc. Psych. Rev. 1(1):3–25.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ellickson PB, Lovett MJ, Shachar R (2021) Who let the dogs out? News media attention stimulates negative political advertising. Working paper, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY.Google Scholar
• Feltus WJ, Goldstein KM, Dallek M (2018) Inside Campaigns: Elections Through the Eyes of Political Professionals (CQ Press, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
• Freedman P, Franz M, Goldstein K (2004) Campaign advertising and democratic citizenship. Amer. J. Polit. Sci. 48(4):723–741.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Galasso V, Nannicini T, Nunnari S (2021) Positive spillovers from negative campaigning. Amer. J. Polit. Sci., ePub ahead of print April 23, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12610.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Geer JG (2008) In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns (University of Chicago Press, Chicago).Google Scholar
• Gillen BJ, Montero S, Moon HR, Shum M (2019) BLP-2LASSO for aggregate discrete choice models with rich covariates. Econom. J. 22(3):262–281.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Goldstein K, Freedman P (2002) Campaign advertising and voter turnout: New evidence for a stimulation effect. J. Polit. 64(3):721–740.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gomez BT, Hansford TG, Krause GA (2007) The Republicans should pray for rain: Weather, turn out, and voting in U.S. presidential elections. J. Polit. 69(3):649–663.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gordon BR, Hartmann WR (2013) Advertising effects in presidential elections. Marketing Sci. 32(1):19–35.Link, Google Scholar
• Gordon BR, Hartmann WR (2016) Advertising competition in presidential elections. Quant. Marketing Econom. 14(1):1–40.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hale JF, Fox JC, Farmer R (1996) Negative advertisements in U.S. Senate campaigns: The influence of campaign context. Soc. Sci. Quart. 77(2):329–343.Google Scholar
• Hanssens D, Parsons LJ, Schultz RL (1990), Design of Static Response Models. Hanssens DM, Parsons LJ, Schultz RL, eds. Market Response Models: Econometric and Time Series Analysis, International Series in Quantitative Marketing, 2nd ed. (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA), 89–138. Google Scholar
• Harrington J, Hess G (1996) A spatial theory of positive and negative campaigning. Games Econom. Behav. 17(2):209–229.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Holbrook AL, Krosnick JA, Visser PS, Gardner WL, Cacioppo JT (2001) Attitudes toward presidential candidates and political parties: Initial optimism, inertial first impressions, and a focus on flaws. Amer. J. Polit. Sci. 45(4):930–950.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Horsky D, Simon LS (1983) Advertising and the diffusion of new products. Marketing Sci. 2(1):1–17.Link, Google Scholar
• Huber GA, Arceneaux K (2007) Identifying the persuasive effects of presidential advertising. Amer. J. Polit. Sci. 51(4):957–977.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ito TA, Cacioppo JT (2000) Electrophysiological evidence of implicit and explicit categorization processes. J. Experiment. Soc. Psych. 36(6):660–676.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ito TA, Larsen JT, Smith NK, Cacioppo JT (1998) Negative information weighs more heavily on the brain: The negativity bias in evaluative categorizations. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 75(4):887–900.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kahn KF, Fridkin K, Kenney PJ, Kenney P (1999) The Spectacle of US Senate Campaigns (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kim H, Rao AR, Lee AY (2009) It’s time to vote: The effect of matching message orientation and temporal frame on political persuasion. J. Consumer Res. 35(6):877–889.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Krieger H (2017) An introduction to the dark arts of opposition research. Accessed March 21, 2022, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-introduction-to-the-dark-arts-of-opposition-research/.Google Scholar
• Lau RR (1985) Two explanations for negativity effects in political behavior. Amer. J. Polit. Sci. 29(1):119–138.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lau RR, Sigelman L, Rovner IB (2007) The effects of negative political campaigns: A meta-analytic reassessment. J. Polit. 69(4):1176–1209.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lau RR, Sigelman L, Heldman C, Babbitt P (1999) The effects of negative political advertisements: A meta-analytic assessment. Amer. Polit. Sci. Rev. 93(4):851–875.Crossref, Google Scholar
• LBBOnline.com (2016) Ad execs on the campaign trail…the creative process of political advertising. Accessed March 21, 2022, https://www.lbbonline.com/news/ad-execs-on-the-campaign-trail-the-creative-process-of-political-advertising.Google Scholar
• Li X, Hartmann WR, Amano T (2020) Preference externality estimators: A comparison of border approaches and IVs. Working paper, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
• Liu Q, Steenburgh TJ, Gupta S (2014) The cross attributes flexible substitution logit: Uncovering category expansion and share impacts of marketing instruments. Marketing Sci. 34(1):144–159.Link, Google Scholar
• Lovett M, Peress M (2015) Targeting political advertising on television. Quart. J. Polit. Sci. 10(3):391–432.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lovett MJ, Shachar R (2011) The seeds of negativity: Knowledge and money. Marketing Sci. 30(3):430–446.Link, Google Scholar
• Lovett MJ, Peres R, Xu L (2019) Can your advertising really buy earned impressions? The effect of brand advertising on word of mouth. Quant. Marketing Econom. 17:215–255.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Mattes K, Redlawsk DP (2014) The Positive Case for Negative Campaigning (University of Chicago Press, Chicago).Google Scholar
• Mullainathan S, Spiess J (2017) Machine learning: An applied econometric approach. J. Econom. Perspect. 31(2):87–106.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Norris M (2007) Opposition research: Know thine enemies. NPR (February 6), https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7226716.Google Scholar
• Peterson DAM, Djupe PA (2005) When primary campaigns go negative: The determinants of campaign negativity. Polit. Res. Quart. 58(1):45–54.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Phillips JM, Urbany JE, Reynolds TJ (2007) Confirmation and the effects of valenced political advertising: A field experiment. J. Consumer Res. 34(6):794–806.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Polborn MK, Yi DT (2006) Informative positive and negative campaigning. Quart. J. Polit. Sci. 1(4):351–371.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pratto F, John OP (1991) Automatic vigilance: The attention-grabbing power of negative social information. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 61(3):380–391.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sanderson E, Windmeijer F (2016) A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables. J. Econometrics 190(2):212–221.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Shachar R (2009) The political participation puzzle and marketing. J. Marketing Res. 46(6):798–815.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Shaffer G, Zhang ZJ (1995) Competitive coupon targeting. Marketing Sci. 14(4):395–416.Link, Google Scholar
• Shapiro BT (2018) Positive spillovers and free riding in advertising of prescription pharmaceuticals: The case of antidepressants. J. Polit. Econom. 126(1):381–437.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Shapiro BT, Hitsch GJ, Tuchman A (2021) TV advertising effectiveness and profitability: Generalizable results from 288 brands. Econometrica 89(4):1855–1879.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Shea J (1997) Instrument relevance in multivariate linear models: A simple measure. Rev. Econom. Statist. 79(2):348–352.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Spenkuch JL, Toniatti D (2018) Political advertising and election results. Quart. J. Econom. 133(4):1981–2036.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Steinhauer J, Weisman J (2012) Mauled by attack ads, incumbents weigh tighter rules. New York Times (October 23), https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/us/politics/incumbents-hit-hard-by-attack-ads-considering-tightening-campaign-finance-laws.html.Google Scholar
• Thaler R (1985) Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Sci. 4(3):199–214.Link, Google Scholar
• Waldfogel J (2003) Preference externalities: An empirical study of who benefits whom in differentiated-product markets. RAND J. Econom. 34(3):557–569.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Wang Y, Lewis M, Schweidel DA (2018) A border strategy analysis of ad source and message tone in senatorial campaigns. Marketing Sci. 37(3):333–355.Link, Google Scholar