The Worst-First Heuristic: How Decision Makers Manage Conjunctive Risk
References
- (2019) Interdependence, perception, and investment choices: An experimental approach to decision making in innovation ecosystems. Organ. Sci. 30(1):109–125.Link, Google Scholar
- (2004) What is not a real option: Considering boundaries for the application of real options to business strategy. Acad. Management Rev. 29(1):74–85.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1973) On the subjective probability of compound events. Organ. Behav. Human Performance 9(3):396–406.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans. Amer. Econom. Rev. 91(1):79–98.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards. J. Evolution Tech. 9, https://www.jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html.Google Scholar
- (2013) Existential risk prevention as global priority. Global Policy 4(1):15–31.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) The same but different: an empirical investigation of the reducibility principle. J. Behav. Decision Making 14(3):187–206.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Six of one, half dozen of the other: Expanding and contracting numerical dimensions produces preference reversals. Psych. Sci. 20(9):1074–1078.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Defence in depth against human extinction: Prevention, response, resilience, and why they all matter. Global Policy 11(3):271–282.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) What motivates effort? Evidence and expert forecasts. Rev. Econom. Stud. 85(2):1029–1069.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Decisions with compound lotteries. Decision 6(2):109.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2000) The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. J. Behav. Decision Making 13(1):1–17.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Valuing bets and hedges: Implications for the construct of risk preference. Judgment Decision Making 13(6):501–508.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Heuristic decision making. Annual Rev. Psych. 62(1):451–482.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1996) Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psych. Rev. 103(4):650.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) On the shape of the probability weighting function. Cognitive Psych. 38(1):129–166.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1985) Entitlements, rights, and fairness: An experimental examination of subjects’ concepts of distributive justice. J. Legal Stud. 14(2):259–297.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Inferring conjunctive probabilities from noisy samples: Evidence for the configural weighted average model. J. Experiment. Psych. Learning Memory Cognition 40(1):203–217.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Probability theory, not the very guide of life. Psych. Rev. 116(4):856–874.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York).Google Scholar
- (2002) Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D, eds. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Cambridge University Press, New York), 49–81.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2):263–291.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Prospective outcome bias: Incurring (unnecessary) costs to achieve outcomes that are already likely. J. Experiment. Psych. General 149(5):870–888.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) Risk as feelings. Psych. Bull. 127(2):267–286.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1982) Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Econom. J. 92(368):805–824.Google Scholar
- (2018) Simultaneous preferences for hedging and doubling down: Focal prospects, background positions, and nonconsequentialist conceptualizations of uncertainty. Management Sci. 64(12):5946–5959.Link, Google Scholar
- (2017) Existential risk and cost-effective biosecurity. Health Security 15(4):373–383.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Exploring the overestimation of conjunctive probabilities. Frontiers Psych. 4:101.Google Scholar
- (2009) Linda is not a bearded lady: Configural weighting and adding as the cause of extension errors. J. Experiment. Psych. General 138(4):517–534.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (Hachette Books, New York).Google Scholar
- (1984) Comparative judgments of multidigit numbers. J. Experiment. Psych. Learning Memory Cognition 10(1):32–45.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) Negativity bias, negativity dominance, and contagion. Personality Soc. Psych. Rev. 5(4):296–320.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Artificial intelligence. Fears of an AI pioneer. Science 349(6245):252.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Existential security: Toward a security framework for the survival of humanity. Global Policy 11(2):255–266.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2021) Can the market multiply and divide? Non-proportional thinking in financial markets. J. Finance 76(5):2307–2357.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Intuitive confidence: Choosing between intuitive and nonintuitive alternatives. J. Experiment. Psych. General 135(3):409–428.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1972) From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculations and Some Evidence about Man’s Ability to Process Information (Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, OR).Google Scholar
- (1965) Boredom-induced changes in preferences among bets. Amer. J. Psych. 78(2):208–217.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) The affect heuristic. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 177(3):1333–1352.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction. Sci. Rep. 9(1):11054.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185(4157):1124–1131.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Mindful judgment and decision making. Annual Rev. Psych. 60(1):53–85.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1984) On dividing justly. Soc. Choice Welfare 1(1):1–24.Crossref, Google Scholar

