Evaluating Investments in Asteroid Detection Technologies to Prevent Catastrophic Impacts on Earth
References
- (2010) Constructing multiattribute utility functions for decision analysis. INFORMS Tutorials Oper. Res. 62–98.Google Scholar
- (2011) One-switch independence for multiattribute utility functions. Oper. Res. 59(3):764–771.Link, Google Scholar
- (2012) METHODS: One-switch conditions for multiattribute utility functions. Oper. Res. 60(5):1199–1212.Link, Google Scholar
- (2025) Eliciting multiple prior beliefs. Rev. Econom. Stud.Google Scholar
- (1980) Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction. Science (1979) 208(4448):1095–1108.Google Scholar
- (1991) Hurricane evacuation behavior. Internat. J. Mass Emerging Disasters 9(2):287–310.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold. National Hazards 94(2):759–775.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) Risk–risk tradeoff analysis of nuclear explosives for asteroid deflection. Risk Anal. 39(11):2427–2442.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) Some determinants of corporate risk aversion. Decision Anal. 3(4):233–251.Link, Google Scholar
- (2003) Decision model for potential asteroid impacts. Research Paper EB560, Decision Analysis, Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO.Google Scholar
- (2011) A study of interactions in the risk assessment of complex engineering systems: An application to space PSA. Oper. Res. 59(6):1461–1476.Link, Google Scholar
- (2013) Near-Earth asteroid retrieval mission (ARM) study. Proc. 33rd Internat. Electric Propulsion Conf. (Electric Rocket Propulsion Society, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
- (2008) Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events. J. Policy Modeling 30(1):111–121.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Asteroid mining with small spacecraft and its economic feasibility. Preprint, submitted August 15, https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.05099.Google Scholar
- (1989) Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications. J. Policy Anal. Management 8(4):565–592.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Euthanizing the value of a statistical life. Rev. Environment. Econom. Policy 4(2):161–178.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Cost and benefit of near-Earth object detection and interception. Canavan GH, Solem JC, Rather JDG, eds. Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids (University of Arizona Press, Tucson), 1157–1191.Google Scholar
- (1999) History of the asteroid/comet impact hazard. Working paper, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX.Google Scholar
- (2004) The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on Earth. Earth Planetary Sci. Lett. 222(1):1–15.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: Assessing the hazard. Nature 367(6458):33–40.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Making Hard Decisions, 3rd ed. (Cengage Learning, Boston).Google Scholar
- (2019) Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (Elsevier Science, Amsterdam).Google Scholar
- (2010) Valuing foreign lives and settlements. J. Benefit Cost Anal. 1(1):1–26.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units. Ecosystem Services 1(1):50–61.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2018) Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgment (Springer, Berlin).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2003) Programmatic risk analysis for critical engineering systems under tight resource constraints. Oper. Res. 51(3):354–370.Link, Google Scholar
- (2022) Cities, settlements and key infrastructure. Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.Google Scholar
- (2006) The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. Limnology Oceanography 51(5):2388–2397.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2024) A European spacecraft launches to perform a crash scene investigation on an asteroid. National Public Radio (October 7), https://www.npr.org/2024/10/07/nx-s1-5144223/hera-spacex-asteroid-mission-dimorphos.Google Scholar
- (1976) An actual application of collective choice theory to the selection of trajectories for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 project. Oper. Res. 24(2):220–244.Link, Google Scholar
- (1979) Measurable multiattribute value functions. Oper. Res. 27(4):810–822.Link, Google Scholar
- (2021) Innovations in the science and practice of decision analysis: The role of management science. Management Sci. 67(9):5364–5378.Link, Google Scholar
- (2012) Decision theory under ambiguity. J. Econom. Survey 26(2):234–270.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1978) An algorithm for the space-shuttle scheduling problem. Oper. Res. 26(1):166–182.Link, Google Scholar
- (2018) A value measure for public-sector enterprise risk management: A TSA case study. Risk Anal. 38(5):991–1008.Crossref, Google Scholar
- Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2020) Global forest resources assessment 2020—key findings. Report, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome.Google Scholar
- (2013) NASA to Congress: Don’t ‘pour money’ into NEO programs. Space Politics (March 20), http://www.spacepolitics.com/2013/03/20/nasa-to-congress-dont-pour-money-into-neo-programs/.Google Scholar
- (2023) NEO Surveyor launch delayed despite funding boost. Space News (January 26), https://spacenews.com/neo-surveyor-launch-delayed-despite-funding-boost/.Google Scholar
- (2020) Putting a dollar value on life? Governments already do. New York Times (May 11), https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/upshot/virus-price-human-life.html.Google Scholar
- (1997) Defense of Earth against large comets and asteroids. Proc. IEEE Aerospace Conf., vol. 4 (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ), 5–29.Google Scholar
- (2025) The chances of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have changed. But what’s the risk, really? The Los Angeles Times (February 19), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-19/the-chances-of-an-asteroid-hitting-earth-in-2032-have-changed-but-whats-the-risk-really.Google Scholar
- (2000) The mitigation, management, and survivability of asteroid/comet impact with Earth. Space Policy 16(3):213–222.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. J. Econom. Theory 118(2):133–173.Crossref, Google Scholar
- GiveWell (2022) GiveWell’s cost-effectiveness analyses. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models.Google Scholar
- Government Accountability Office (2020) National Science Foundation: Cost and schedule performance of major facilities construction projects and progress on prior GAO recommendations. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-20-268-highlights.pdf.Google Scholar
- (2006) A modeling framework for interplanetary supply chains. Space 2006 (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA), 2006–7229.Google Scholar
- (2020) The NEO surveillance mission (NEOSM) survey simulations. AAS/Division Planetary Sci. Meeting Abstracts 52(6):208–203.Google Scholar
- (2004) Mitigation technologies and their requirements. Belton MJS, Morgan TH, Samarasinha NH, Yeomans DK, eds. Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 167–200.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) The asteroid and comet impact hazard: Risk assessment and mitigation options. Sci. Nature 93(8):361–373.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2022) NASA confirms DART mission impact changed asteroid’s motion in space. Accessed January 2, 2023, https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-confirms-dart-mission-impact-changed-asteroid-s-motion-in-space.Google Scholar
- (2021) The population of near-Earth asteroids revisited and updated. Icarus 365:114452.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) The population of near-Earth asteroids. Icarus 257:302–312.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Reflections: Uncertainty and decision making in climate change economics. Rev. Environment. Econom. Policy 8(1):120–137.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) A techno-economic analysis of asteroid mining. Acta Astronaut 168:104–115.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1991) Chicxulub crater: A possible cretaceous/tertiary boundary impact crater on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Geology 19(9):867–871.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1989) Risk, ambiguity, and insurance. J. Risk Uncertainty 2:5–35.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1988) Decision analysis: Practice and promise. Management Sci. 34(6):679–695.Link, Google Scholar
- (2021) Urban planning policy must do more to integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. Land Use Policy 101:105188.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1951) Some specification problems and applications to econometric models. Econometrica 19(3):343–344.Google Scholar
- (2023) Ambiguity. Bachmann R, Topa G, eds. Handbook of Economic Expectations (Elsevier, Amsterdam), 749–777.Crossref, Google Scholar
- Interagency Working Group on Near-Earth Object Impact Threat Emergency Protocols (2021) Report on near-earth object impact threat emergency protocols. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/NEO-Impact-Threat-Protocols-Jan2021.pdf.Google Scholar
- (2019) Small-satellite mission failure rates. Technical Memorandum No. TM-2018-220034, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA.Google Scholar
- (1994) Dynamic decision making with belief functions. Yager R, Fedrizzi M, Kacprzyk J, eds. Advances in the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (John Wiley, Hoboken, NJ), 331–352.Google Scholar
- (1997) On the existence of subjective upper and lower probabilities. Math. Oper. Res. 22(1):165–185.Link, Google Scholar
- (2021) Russia joins China’s mission to sample an asteroid and study a comet. Accessed January 1, 2025, https://www.space.com/russia-joins-china-asteroid-comet-mission.Google Scholar
- (2018) The large synoptic survey telescope as a near-Earth object discovery machine. Icarus 303:181–202.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1974) The value of changes in the probability of death or injury. J. Political Econom. 82(4):835–849.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1971) Utility independence and preferences for multiattributed consequences. Oper. Res. 19(4):875–893.Link, Google Scholar
- (1987) An analysis of portfolio of sites to characterize for selecting a nuclear repository. Risk Anal. 7(2):196–216.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Selecting attributes to measure the achievement of objectives. Oper. Res. 53(1):1–11.Link, Google Scholar
- (1993) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK). Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) A value model for evaluating homeland security decisions. Risk Anal. 31(9):1470–1487.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2022) China to try and knock asteroid off path with new monitoring and defence system. Accessed Febuary 10, 2023, https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/04/china-to-try-and-knock-asteroid-off-path-with-new-monitoring-and-defence-system.html.Google Scholar
- (2004) Approximating risk aversion in decision analysis applications. Decision Anal. 1(1):51–67.Link, Google Scholar
- (2022) Foundations of ambiguity models under symmetry: α-MEU and smooth ambiguity. J. Econom. Theory 199:105202.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Current NEO surveys. Proc. Internat. Astronomical Union S236:323–328.Google Scholar
- (2014) A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-Earth objects. Acta Astronaut 103:362–369.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2016) Economics of tipping the climate dominoes. Nature Climate Change 6(5):514–519.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Valuing mortality risk reductions from environmental, transport, and health policies: A global meta-analysis of stated preference studies. Risk Anal. 31(9):1381–1407.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) How much of the world’s land has been urbanized, really? A hierarchical framework for avoiding confusion. Landscape Ecology 29:763–771.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) The Tunguska event. Bobrowsky P, Rickman H, eds. Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society (Springer, Berlin), 369–382.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Survey simulations of a new near-Earth asteroid detection system. Astronomy J. 149(5):172.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2005) Utility transversality: A value‐based approach. J. Multi‐Criteria Decision Anal. (Oxford) 13(5–6):229–238.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2021) How NASA chooses its missions (and how you can help). Accessed March 2, 2023, https://astrobites.org/2021/11/26/nasa-mission-selection/.Google Scholar
- (2010) Is screening cargo containers for smuggled nuclear threats worthwhile? Decision Anal. 7(2):155–171.Link, Google Scholar
- (2004) Impacts and the public: Communicating the nature of the impact hazard. Belton MJS, Morgan TH, Samarasinha NH, Yeomans DK, eds. Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 353–390.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2002) What determines the value of life? A meta‐analysis. J. Policy Anal. Management 21(2):253–270.Crossref, Google Scholar
- NASA (2003) Study to determine the feasibility of extending the search for near Earth objects to smaller limiting diameters. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/neo_report2003.html.Google Scholar
- NASA (2007a) Near‐Earth object survey and deflection analysis of alternatives (Report to Congress). Accessed February 10, 2023, https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/neo_report2007.html.Google Scholar
- NASA (2007b) Near-Earth object survey and deflection study. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/171331main_NEO_report_march07.pdf.Google Scholar
- NASA (2017) Update to determine the feasibility of enhancing the search and characterization of NEOs. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/2017_neo_sdt_final_e-version.pdf.Google Scholar
- NASA (2021) Planetary Missions Program Office, solar system exploration program. Accessed March 2, 2023, https://www.nasa.gov/planetarymissions/solarsystemexploration.html.Google Scholar
- NASA (2023) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, discovery statistics. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/totals.html.Google Scholar
- NASA (2024) NASA spinoff issue archive. Accessed January 19, 2025, https://spinoff.nasa.gov/spinoff/archives.Google Scholar
- NASA (2025) 2024 YR4 facts. Accessed August 1, 2025, https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4-facts.Google Scholar
- National Research Council (2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies (National Academies Press, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
- National Research Council (2019) Finding Hazardous Asteroids Using Infrared and Visible Wavelength Telescopes (National Academies Press, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
- (2020) Optimization and decision-making framework for multi-staged asteroid deflection campaigns under epistemic uncertainties. Acta Astronaut 167:23–41.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2021) Population norms for quality adjusted life years for the United States of America, China, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Health Econom. 30(8):1950–1977.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) Foundations 2025: A value model for evaluating future air and space forces. Management Sci. 44(10):1336–1350.Link, Google Scholar
- (1994) Risk management for the tiles of the space shuttle. Interfaces (Providence) 24(1):64–86.Link, Google Scholar
- (1997) Roadblocks on the kill curve: Testing the Raup hypothesis. Palaios 12(6):582–590.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2017) Moral commitments in cost-benefit analysis. Virginia Law Rev. 103:1809–1860.Google Scholar
- (2014) Probabilistic analysis of asteroid impact risk mitigation programs. Smith C, Paulos T, eds. Proc. Probabilistic Safety Management Conf. (International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Honolulu), 1–12.Google Scholar
- (2016) Asteroid risk assessment: A probabilistic approach. Risk Anal. 36(2):244–261.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2001) NEO scientific and policy developments, 1995–2000. Space Policy 17(3):213–218.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1975) Multivariate risk aversion, utility independence and separable utility functions. Management Sci. 22(1):12–21.Link, Google Scholar
- (2019) Near and far-field hazards of asteroid impacts in oceans. Acta Astronaut 156:262–277.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Research synthesis and the value per statistical life. Risk Anal. 35(6):1086–1100.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) Valuing mortality risk reductions in global benefit-cost analysis. J. Benefit Cost Anal. 10(S1):15–50.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Valuing foreign lives. Georgia Law Rev. 48(2):499–578.Google Scholar
- Rubin Observatory (2024) Rubin observatory project schedule. Accessed January 23, 2025, https://www.lsst.org/about/timeline.Google Scholar
- (2017) Asteroid impact effects and their immediate hazards for human populations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44(8):3433–3440.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2023) Japan to test technology to destroy ‘small and fast’ asteroid set to collide with Earth. South China Morning Post (December 21), https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/lifestyle-culture/article/3245767/japan-test-technology-destroy-small-and-fast-asteroid-set-collide-earth.Google Scholar
- (2001) Temperate grasslands. Chapin FS, Sala OE, Huber-Sannwald E, eds. Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century (Springer, New York), 121–137.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Multicriteria comparison among several mitigation strategies for dangerous near-Earth objects. J. Guided Control. Dynamics 32(1):121–142.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) The Chicxulub asteroid impact and mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Science (1979) 327(5970):1214–1218.Google Scholar
- (2008) Asteroid threats: A call for global response. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://www.space-explorers.org/resources/Pictures/photos/ATACGR.pdf.Google Scholar
- (2009) An estimate of the terrestrial influx of large meteoroids from infrasonic measurements. J. Geophys. Res. Planets 114(E8).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) Bridenstine embraces planetary defense, endorses NEOCam. Space Policy (April 19), https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/bridenstine-embraces-planetary-defense-endorses-neocam/.Google Scholar
- (2021) On (measurable) multiattribute value functions: An expository argument. Decision Anal. (Oxford) 18(4):247–256.Link, Google Scholar
- (1997) New estimates of global and regional coral reef areas. Coral Reefs 16:225–230.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Homeland security: A case study in risk aversion for public decision-making. Internat. J. Risk Assessement Management 15(5–6):367–386.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2017) New report assesses status of detecting near-Earth asteroids. Accessed Febuary 10, 2023, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/new-report-assesses-status-of-detecting-near-earth-asteroids.Google Scholar
- (2021) Ground-based radar for planetary science and planetary defense. Planetary science and astrobiology decadal survey 2023–2032. Bull. Amer. Astronomical Soc. 53(4):White Paper 239.Google Scholar
- (2020) Earth transformed: Detailed mapping of global human modification from 1990 to 2017. Earth Systems Sci. Data 12:1953–1972.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1997) Environmental perturbations caused by the impacts of asteroids and comets. Rev. Geophys. 35(1):41–78.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2012) Multiattribute one-switch utility. Management Sci. 58(3):602–605.Link, Google Scholar
- U.S. Department of Transportation (2023) Departmental guidance on valuation of a statistical life in economic analysis. Accessed February 10, 2023, https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis.Google Scholar
- United Nations Environment Programme (2022) Wetlands: The unsung heroes of the planet. Accessed February 14, 2024, https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/wetlands-unsung-heroes-planet.Google Scholar
- (2017) Income elasticities and global values of a statistical life. J. Benefit Cost Anal. 8(2):226–250.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1975) Multi-attribute utility theory: Models and assessment procedures. Wendt D, Vlek C, eds. Utility Probability Human Decision Making: Selected Proc. Interdisciplinary Res. Conf. (Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht), 47–85.Google Scholar
- (1980) Additivity and expected utility in risky multiattribute preferences. J. Math. Psychol. 21(1):66–82.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2019) NASA to build telescope for detecting asteroids that threaten Earth. ScienceInsider (September 23), https://www.science.org/content/article/nasa-build-telescope-detecting-asteroids-threaten-earth. Google Scholar
- (2010) Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Decision analysis of exploration opportunities in the onshore US at Phillips Petroleum Company. Interfaces (Providence) 25(6):39–56.Link, Google Scholar
- (2019) Tidal wetland resilience to sea level rise increases their carbon sequestration capacity in United States. Nature Comm. 10(1):5434.Crossref, Google Scholar
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (2024) Know your ocean. Accessed February 14, 2024, https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/.Google Scholar
- (2015) Near-earth asteroids and the value of search. Proc. Industrial Systems Engrg. Res. Conf. (Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers, Norcross, Georgia).Google Scholar

