Forecasting New Product Life Cycle Curves: Practical Approach and Empirical Analysis

Finalist–2017 M&SOM Practice-Based Research Competition
Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2017.0691

References

  • Acimovic J, Erize F, Hu K, Thomas DJ, Van Mieghem JA (2018) Product life cycle data-set: Raw and cleaned data of weekly orders for personal computers. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management. Forthcoming.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Ban G-Y, Gallien J, Mersereau AJ (2018) Dynamic procurement of new products with covariate information: The residual tree method. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management. Forthcoming.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Bass FM (1969) A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(5):215–227.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Boute RN, Van Mieghem JA (2014) Global dual sourcing and order smoothing: The impact of capacity and lead times. Management Sci. 61(9):2080–2099.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Buzzell RD, Nourse RE (1967) Product Innovation in Food Processing, 1954–1964 (Harvard University Press, New York).Google Scholar
  • Chouakria AD, Nagabhushan PN (2007) Adaptive dissimilarity index for measuring time series proximity. Adv. Data Anal. Classification 1(1):5–21.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cooper RG, Edgett SJ (2012) Best practices in the idea-to-launch process and its governance. Res.-Tech. Management 55(2):43–54.Google Scholar
  • Cox WE (1967) Product life cycles as marketing models. J. Bus. 40(4):375–384.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Crompton JL (1979) Recreation programs have life cycles, too. Parks Recreation (October):52–57.Google Scholar
  • Crompton JL, Bonk S (1978) An empirical investigation of the appropriateness of the product life cycle to municipal library services. J. Acad. Marketing Sci. 6(1–2):77–90.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Diermann C, Huchzermeier A (2016) Judgmental demand forecasting for online sales of product collections: Segmentation by type or age? SSRN Scholarly Paper 2782002, Social Science Research Network, Rochester, NY.Google Scholar
  • Fildes R, Goodwin P (2007) Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting. Interfaces 37(6):570–576.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Fisher M, Raman A (1996) Reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales. Oper. Res. 44(1):87–99.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Frederixon MS (1969) An investigation of the product life cycle concept and its application to new product proposal evaluation within the chemical industry. PhD thesis, Michigan State University, East Lansing.Google Scholar
  • Gallien J, Mersereau AJ, Garro A, Mora AD, Vidal MN (2015) Initial shipment decisions for new products at Zara. Oper. Res. 63(2):269–286.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Golder PN, Tellis GJ (2004) Growing, growing, gone: Cascades, diffusion, and turning points in the product life cycle. Marketing Sci. 23(2):207–218.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Goldman A (1982) Short product life cycles: Implications for the marketing activities of small high-technology companies. R&D Management 12(2):81–90.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hayes RH, Wheelwright SC (1979) Link manufacturing process and product life cycles. Harvard Bus. Rev. 57(1):133–140.Google Scholar
  • Headen RS (1966) The Introductory Phases of the Life Cycle for New Grocery Products: Consumer Acceptance and Competitive Behavior (Graduate School of Business Administration, George F. Baker Foundation, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
  • Ho T-H, Savin S, Terwiesch C (2002) Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint. Management Sci. 48(2):187–206.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB (2006) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. Internat. J. Forecasting 22(4):679–688.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kahn KB (2002) An exploratory investigation of new product forecasting practices. J. Product Innovation Management 19(2): 133–143.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kapuscinski R, Zhang RQ, Carbonneau P, Moore R, Reeves B (2004) Inventory decisions in Dell’s supply chain. Interfaces 34(3):191–205.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Kumar S, Swaminathan JM (2003) Diffusion of innovations under supply constraints. Oper. Res. 51(6):866–879.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Kurawarwala AA, Matsuo H (1996) Forecasting and inventory management of short life-cycle products. Oper. Res. 44(1):131–150.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Levitt T (1965) Exploit the product life cycle. Harvard Bus. Rev. 18(November):81–94.Google Scholar
  • Niu S-C (2006) A piecewise-diffusion model of new-product demands. Oper. Res. 54(4):678–695.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • R Core Team (2017) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna).Google Scholar
  • Rink DR, Swan JE (1979) Product life cycle research: A literature review. J. Bus. Res. 7(3):219–242.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Stark J (2015) Product lifecycle management. Product Lifecycle Management, Vol. 1 (Springer, Cham, Switzerland), 1–29.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tigert D, Farivar B (1981) The Bass new product growth model: A sensitivity analysis for a high technology product. J. Marketing 45(October):81–90.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wu SD, Aytac B, Berger RT, Armbruster CA (2006) Managing short life-cycle technology products for Agere systems. Interfaces 36(3):234–247.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Zhu K, Thonemann UW (2004) An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles. Naval Res. Logist. 51(5):633–653.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.