Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2306

References

  • Arons MM, Hatfield KM, Reddy SC, Kimball A, James A, Jacobs JR, Taylor J, et al. et al.(2020) Presymptomatic Sars-CoV-2 infections and transmission in a skilled nursing facility. N. Engl. J. Med. 382:2081–2090.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bendavid E, Mulaney B, Sood N, Shah S, Ling E, Bromley-Dulfano R, Lai C, Weissberg Z, Saavedra-Walker R, Tedrow J, Bogan A, Kupiec T, Eichner D, Gupta R, Ioannidis JP, Bhattacharya J. (2020) COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California. Int. J. Epidemiol. 50(2):410–419.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bertsimas D, Bandi H, Boussioux L, Cory-Wright R, Delarue A, Digalakis V, Gilmour S, et al. (2020) An aggregated data set of clinical outcomes for COVID-19 patients. http://www.covidanalytics.io/dataset_documentation.Google Scholar
  • Britton T, Ball F, Trapman P (2020) A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science 369(6505):846–849.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Byambasuren O, Cardona M, Bell K, Clark J, McLaws ML, Glasziou P (2020) Estimating the extent of true asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMMI 5(4):223–234.Google Scholar
  • Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Piontti AP, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A (2020) The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science 368(6489):395–400.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • National Research Council (2012) Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification. (National Academies Press; Washington, D.C.).Google Scholar
  • Dean NE, Piontti AP, Madewell ZJ, Cummings DA, Hitchings MD, Joshi K, Kahn R, Vespignani A, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr(2020) Ensemble forecast modeling for the design of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials. Vaccine 38(46):7213–7216.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Doi A, Iwata K, Kuroda H, Hasuike T, Nasu S, Kanda A, Nagao T, Nishioka H, Tomii K, Morimoto T, Kihara Y (2021) Estimation of seroprevalence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using preserved serum at an outpatient setting in Kobe, Japan: A cross-sectional study. Clin. Epidemiol. Global Health 11:100747.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Erikstrup C, Hother CE, Pedersen OBV, Mølbak K, Skov RL, Holm DK, Saekmose S, Nilsson AC, Brooks PT, Boldsen JK, Mikkelsen C, Gybel-Brask M, Sørensen E, Dinh KM, Mikkelsen S, Møller BK S, Haunstrup T, Harritshøj L, Jensen BA, Hjalgrim H, Lillevang ST, Ullum H (2020) Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate by real-time antibody screening of blood donors. Clin. Infect. Dis. 72(2):249–253.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gomes MGM, Corder RM, King JG, Langwig KE, Souto-Maior C, Carneiro J, Gonçalves G, Penha-Gonçalves C, Ferreira MU, Aguas R (2022) Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. J. Theor. Biol. 540:111063.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Grein J, Ohmagari N, Shin D, Diaz G, Asperges E, Castagna A, Feldt T, Green G, Green ML, Lescure FX, Nicastri E, Oda R, et al. (2020) Compassionate use of remdesivir for patients with severe COVID-19. N. Engl. J. Med. 382:2327–2336.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gu Y (2020) COVID-19 projections using machine learning. Retrieved October 10, https://covid19-projections.com/.Google Scholar
  • Hale T, Angrist N, Goldszmidt R, Kira B, Petherick A, Phillips T, Wester S, Cameron-Blake E, Hallas L, Majumdar S, Tatlow H (2021) A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker). Nat. Hum. Behav. 5: 529–538.Google Scholar
  • Hu Z, Song C, Xu C, Jin G, Chen Y, Xu X, Ma H, et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China. Sci. China Life Sci. 63:706–711.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • IHME COVID-19 Health Service Utilization Forecasting Team, Murray CJL (2020) Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. Preprint, submitted March 30, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752.Google Scholar
  • Ing AJ, Cocks C, Green JP (2020) COVID-19: in the footsteps of Ernest Shackleton. Thorax 75(8):693–694.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond., A Contain. Pap. Math. Phys. Character. 115(772):700–721.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kluytmans M, Buiting A, Pas S, Bentvelsen R, van den Bijllaardt W, van Oudheusden A, van Rijen M, Verweij J, Koopmans M, Kluytmans J (2020) SARS-CoV-2 infection in 86 healthcare workers in two Dutch hospitals in March 2020. Preprint, submitted March 31, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041913.Google Scholar
  • Krantz SG, Rao ASR (2020) Level of under-reporting including under-diagnosis before the first peak of COVID-19 in various countries: Preliminary retrospective results based on wavelets and deterministic modeling. Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 41(7):857–859.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • LANL COVID-19 Team (2020) LANL COVID-19 cases and deaths forecasts. Retrieved October 10, https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/.Google Scholar
  • Larson RC (2007) Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population. Oper. Res. 55(3):399–412.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith HR, Azman AS, Reich NG, Lessler J (2020) The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Ann. Intern. Med. 172(9):577–582.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J (2020a) The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared with SARS coronavirus. J. Travel Med. 27(2):taaa021.Google Scholar
  • Liu Y, Sun W, Li J, Chen L, Wang Y, Zhang L, Yu L (2020b) Clinical characteristics and progression of 2019 novel coronavirus-infected patients concurrent acute respiratory distress syndrome. Preprint, submitted February 27, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20024166v3.Google Scholar
  • Lourenço J, Paton R, Ghafari M, Kraemer M, Thompson C, Simmonds P, Klenerman P, Gupta S (2020) Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV‒2 epidemic. Preprint, submitted March 26, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291.Google Scholar
  • Mehrotra P, Ivan J (2020) Prophet logistic forecasting.Google Scholar
  • Murray C, et al. (2020) Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the usa and european economic area countries. Preprint, submitted April 26, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074732.Google Scholar
  • Niehus R, Martinez de Salazar Munoz P, Taylor A, Lipsitch M(2020) Quantifying bias of COVID-19 prevalence and severity estimates in Wuhan, China that depend on reported cases in international travelers. Preprint, submitted February 18, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022707v2.Google Scholar
  • Nocedal J, Wright S (2006) Numerical Optimization. (Springer, New York).Google Scholar
  • Perkins A, Espana G (2020) NotreDame-FRED COVID-19 forecasts. https://github.com/confunguido/covid19_ND_forecasting.Google Scholar
  • PSI-DRAFT (2020) Disease rapid analysis and forecasting tool. Retreived October 10, https://zoltardata.com/model/254.Google Scholar
  • Ray EL, Wattanachit N, Niemi J, Kanji AH, House K, Cramer EY, Bracher J, et al. (2020) Ensemble forecasts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. Preprint, submitted August 20, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.19.20177493v1.Google Scholar
  • Rodriguez A, Tabassum A, Cui J, Xie J, Ho J, Agarwal P, Adhikari B, Prakash BA (2020) Deepcovid: An operational deep learning-driven framework for explainable real-time COVID-19 forecasting. Preprint, subimitted March 21, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.28.20203109v3.Google Scholar
  • Sayampanathan AA, Heng CS, Pin PH, Pang J, Leong TY, Lee VJ(2021) Infectivity of asymptomatic vs. symptomatic COVID-19. Lancet. 397(10269):93–94.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sood N, Simon P, Ebner P, Eichner D, Reynolds J, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J (2020) Seroprevalence of Sars-CoV-2–specific antibodies among adults in Los Angeles County, California, on April 10 − 11, 2020. JAMA. Published online May 14, 2020, doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.8438.Google Scholar
  • Streeck H, Schulte B, Kuemmerer B, Richter E, Höller T, Fuhrmann C, Bartok E, et al. (2020) Infection fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a german community with a super-spreading event. Preprint, submitted June 2, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v2.Google Scholar
  • Wang C, Liu L, Hao X, Guo H, Wang Q, Huang J, He N, et al. (2020) Evolving epidemiology and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. Preprint, submitted March 6, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1.Google Scholar
  • Wise J (2020) Covid-19: Surveys indicate low infection level in community. BMJ 2020;369:m1992.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Woody S, Tec MG, Dahan M, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Fox S, Meyers LA, Scott JG (2020) Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the us using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. Preprint, submitted April 26, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20068163v2.Google Scholar
  • Xiang Y, Sun D, Fan W, Gong X (1997) Generalized simulated annealing algorithm and its application to the thomson model. Phys. Lett. A. 233(3):216–220.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Xu H, Huang S, Liu S, Deng J, Jiao B, Ai L, Xiao Y, Yan L, Li S(2020) Evaluation of the clinical characteristics of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 during home care with isolation: A new retrospective analysis based on O2O. Preprint, submitted March 6, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3548746.Google Scholar
  • Zhang S, Diao M, Yu W, Pei L, Lin Z, Chen D (2020) Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the diamond princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 93:201–204.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.