Belief Updating Beyond the Two-State Setting

The authors thank the editor, Manel Baucells, an anonymous associate editor, three anonymous reviewers, Enrico Diecidue, Judith C. Schneider, Susanne Siedhoff, Lennart Stitz, and participants at the 2019 Experimental Finance Conference (Copenhagen), the 2019 Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Conference (Amsterdam), the 40th Society for Judgment and Decision Making Annual Conference (Montreal), the 57th Edwards Bayesian Research Conference (Fullerton), and the Finance Center Münster research seminar for helpful comments and suggestions. Previous versions of this paper were circulated under the titles “How general is the strength-weight bias in probability updating?” and “Beyond the two-state setting: Do individuals generally underinfer from high-weight information?”