Jackie Silverman, Uri Barnea (2024) The Prediction Order Effect: People Are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions. Management Science 70(12):8541-8555.

https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01175

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Adam Eric Greenberg, Sydney Scott, and the Wharton Decision Processes laboratory group for helpful comments, as well as Ella Kolln for research assistance. J. Silverman and U. Barnea contributed equally to this work; author order was determined via coin flip.

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The Prediction Order Effect: People Are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions

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