Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation for Ad Measurement

The authors thank Neha Bhargava, J.-P. Dubé, Dean Eckles, Elea Feit, Garrett Johnson, Randall Lewis, Jim Lecinski, Oded Netzer, Ilya Morozov, Kelly Paulson, Julian Runge, Ryan Shyu, Andrey Simonov, and seminar participants at Arizona State University, Carnegie Mellon University, Columbia University, Cornell University, Georgetown University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Invitational Choice Symposium, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Notre Dame, Purdue University, The Ohio State University, Stanford University, University of North Carolina, University of Arizona, University of Iowa, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, University of Rochester, University of Texas at Austin, Virtual Quantitative Marketing Seminar, Washington University in St. Louis, Utah Winter Business Economics Conference, Conference on Digital Experimentation, Marketing Science Conference, the New York University-Temple-Carnegie Mellon University Conference, Amazon, Meta, and the Marketing Science Institute. Previously, B. R. Gordon and F. Zettelmeyer were part-time employees of Facebook (Academic Researchers, three hours/week). Currently, B. R. Gordon and F. Zettelmeyer hold concurrent appointments at Northwestern University and Amazon. This paper describes work performed at Northwestern and is not associated with Amazon.