M&SOM Practice Platform

The Energy Transition: Transforming Energy Systems and Supply Chains to Limit Global Warming via Decarbonization

Abstract

Countries and companies worldwide are embarking on the energy transition to decarbonize energy systems with the goal of limiting global warming. This talk provides a global perspective on this disruptive shift, which will involve a radical transformation from fossil molecules to renewable electrons as the key energy source. It quantifies, in a somewhat simplified manner, the differences between various global warming levels by the 2050s, ranging from the highly dangerous 2.5 degrees Celsius increase to the far safer 1.5 degrees Celsius rise, in terms of contributions from 12 innovative technologies or processes: Solar photovoltaic, batteries, electric vehicles (EV), carbon capture use and storage (CCUS), wind power, hydrogen, geothermal, heat pumps, biofuels, high temperature heat storage, circular economy measures, and agricultural process changes. Close monitoring of the pace of new solar expansion, EV adoption, and CCUS projects and their supply chains shows that the world seems to be on a 1.5 degrees Celsius upswing trajectory. New fossil fuel molecules will be needed for many decades to come, because the underlying well-level decline in oil and gas production from existing fields is happening more quickly than any scenarios for demand decline. Thus, investments in new wells and facilities will be necessary to avoid an energy crisis. The challenge for countries and companies is how to balance the tension between continuing to feed the current energy systems with fossil molecules and preparing them for a vastly different landscape predominantly based on renewable electrons. Managing this journey will require a complete redesign and reconfiguration of the existing energy supply chains across the globe.

Presenter: Jarand Rystad

Jarand Rystad founded Rystad Energy in 2004 and has, since its inception, managed the company. Jarand has extensive experience in the energy strategy advisory business and his areas of expertise include energy system analysis, energy scenarios, renewables, supply chains, emissions, asset and company valuations and transactions, macro analysis, and all aspects of the energy transition. As an established thought leader in these and other fields, Jarand is a frequent keynote speaker at international conferences related to energy. He is, according to the Financial Times, “one of the most cited petroleum analysts in the industry”.

Prior to founding Rystad Energy, Jarand worked for McKinsey & Company. He holds an MSc degree in Physics from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, where he majored with a thesis in asteroseismology. Jarand also has an academic background in philosophy and has been the leader and founder of various organizations.

The guest co-host for this talk was Prof. Nicola Secomandi from the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University whose research focuses on the energy industry.

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