Asset Pricing in a World of Imperfect Foresight

The paper benefited from presentations at conferences (Society for Experimental Finance, Econometric Society, FIRN Annual Meeting, Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets Conference, FIRN Virtual Seminar, Asia Experimental and Behavioral Economics Seminar Series, AEA Annual Meeting, SGF Conference, 10th Helsinki Finance Summit on Investor Behavior, 12th Miami Behavioral Finance Conference, FIRS Conference) and universities (Hebrew University, Hong Kong UST, Monash University, University of Geneva, University of Louvain, University of Melbourne, University of St. Gallen, Tinbergen Institute, University of Zurich). The authors are grateful for valuable comments by Daniel Hauser, Nicholas Hirschey, Chad Kendall, Chen Wang, Matthias Weber, and Rüdiger Weber. Preliminary results on the experiments reported here were first reported in the Honours Thesis of Frans van den Bogaerde at the University of Melbourne, entitled “Dynamic Asset Pricing with Imperfect Foresight.”