Assessing the Influence of Campaign Expenditures on Voting Behavior with a Comprehensive Electoral Market Model

This paper extends previous single equation econometric modeling efforts of the “sales-advertising” relationship in elections. Operating within the perspective of the general demand context of voting behavior, it develops a comprehensive electoral market model that takes account of potential simultaneous relationships among votes cast, campaign expenditures, and voting participation (turnout). The model is estimated using 3SLS techniques with aggregate electoral district data from each of eight Canadian provincial elections. The model appears to yield consistent and therefore generalizable empirical results across the eight election events. Chief among the empirical results is the expected relationship between campaign efforts and voting behavior: “own” communications efforts (as proxied by campaign expenditures) have a positive impact on votes received, while competitive communications efforts draw votes away from a candidate.