Beyond Consumer Switching: Supply Responses to Food Packaging and Advertising Regulations

This paper studies the effect of nutrition warning labels and advertising restrictions on the breakfast cereal market in Chile. In June 2016, the Ministry of Health required food products that exceed thresholds for sugar (22.5 g) and calories (350 kcal) to carry conspicuous front-of-package warning labels. Furthermore, these products were barred from advertising on television programs with high child viewership. Early evidence suggests that the regulation induces consumers to switch to products without warning labels; we show that this change in demand elicits a supply response. In particular, we present evidence of bunching just below the cutoffs. Using a structural model of cereal demand, we find that reformulation tends to reinforce the intent of the reform, in particular, by lowering the calorie content of cereal purchases.