Assessing the Sales Impact of Plain Packaging Regulation for Cigarettes: Evidence from Australia

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2019.1164

References

  • Angrist JD, Pischke JS (2008) Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Argo JJ, White K (2012) When do consumers eat more? The role of appearance self-esteem and food packaging cues. J. Marketing 76(2):67–80.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Baltagi BH, Griffin JM (1995) A dynamic demand model for liquor: The case for pooling. Rev. Econom. Statist. 77(3):545–554.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Banks E, Joshy G, Weber MF, Bette Liu B, Grenfell R, Egger S, Paige E, Lopez AD, Sitas F, Beral V (2015) Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: Findings from a mature epidemic with current low smoking prevalence. BMC Medicine 13(1):38.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bardsley P, Olekalns N (1999) Cigarette and tobacco consumption: Have anti-smoking policies made a difference? Econom. Record 75(3):225–240.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bijmolt THA, van Heerde HJ, Pieters RGM (2005) New empirical generalizations on the determinants of price elasticity. J. Marketing Res. 42(2):141–156.Google Scholar
  • Bowen C, Plibersek T (2013) Government to increase tobacco excise. Press Release No. 015, Department of the Treasury, Canberra, ACT, Australia.Google Scholar
  • Bruce AS, Lepping RJ, Bruce JM, Cherry JBC, Martin LE, Davis AM, Brooks WM, Savage CR (2013) Brain responses to food logos in obese and healthy weight children. J. Pediatrics 162(4):759–764.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Burton S, Hoek J, Nesbit P, Khan A (2015) “Smoking is bad, it’s not cool…Yet I’m still doing it”: Cues for tobacco consumption in a “dark” market. J. Bus. Res. 68(10):2067–2074.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Capella ML, Webster C, Kinard BR (2011) A review of the effect of cigarette advertising. Internat. J. Res. Marketing 28(3):269–279.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chaloupka FJ, Cummings KM, Morley CP, Horan JK (2002) Tax, price and cigarette smoking: Evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies. Tobacco Control 11(Suppl 1):i62–i72.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chen T, Sun B, Singh V (2009) An empirical investigation of the dynamic effect of Marlboro’s permanent pricing shift. Marketing Sci. 28(4):740–758.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Chipty T (2016) Study of the impact of the tobacco plain packaging measure on smoking prevalence in Australia. Accessed March 9, 2018, http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/study-pp-measure.Google Scholar
  • Davidson S, Silva A (2018) Did recent tobacco reforms change the cigarette market? Econom. Papers 37(1):55–74.Google Scholar
  • Dewhirst T (2012) Price and tobacco marketing strategy: Lessons from “dark” markets and implications for WHO framework convention on tobacco control. Tobacco Control 21(6):519–523.Google Scholar
  • Diethelm PA, Farley T (2015) Refuting tobacco-industry funded research: Empirical data shows a decline in smoking prevalence following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia. Tobacco Prevention Cessation 1(6):1–7.Google Scholar
  • Doward J (2015) Row over Marlboro-funded research that undermined plain cigarette packs. The Guardian (February 14), https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/14/ow-over-arlboro-funded-research-that-undermined-plain-cigarette-packs.Google Scholar
  • Dreze, X, Hoch SJ, Purk ME (1994) Shelf management and space elasticity. J. Retailing 70(4):301–326.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Elder RS, Krishna A (2009) The effects of advertising copy on sensory thoughts and perceived taste. J. Consumer Res. 36(5):748–756.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Euromonitor International (2017) Cigarettes in New Zealand. Report, Euromonitor International, London.Google Scholar
  • Euromonitor Passport (2018a) Distribution. Euromonitor International. Accessed May 12, 2018, http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.ezproxy-b.deakin.edu.au/portal/statisticsevolution/index.Google Scholar
  • Euromonitor Passport (2018b) Market sizes. Euromonitor International. Accessed May 12, 2018, http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.ezproxy-b.deakin.edu.au/portal/statisticsevolution/index.Google Scholar
  • Euromonitor Passport (2018c) Smoking population. Euromonitor International. Accessed November 15, 2018, http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.ezproxy-b.deakin.edu.au/portal/statisticsevolution/index.Google Scholar
  • Fok D, Horváth C, Paap R, Franses PH (2006) A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects of price changes. J. Marketing Res. 43(3):443–461.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ford A, Moodie C, Hastings G (2012) The role of packaging for consumer products: Understanding the move toward “plain” tobacco packaging. Addiction Res. Theory 20(4):339–347.Google Scholar
  • Fraser Institute (2018) Economic freedom of the world: 2018 annual report. Accessed November 16, 2018, https://www.fraserinstitute.org/economic-freedom/map?geozone=world&year=2016&countries=AUS,NZL&page=map.Google Scholar
  • Freeman B, Chapman S, Rimmer M (2008) The case for the plain packaging of tobacco products. Addiction 103(4):580–590.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gallet, Craig A, List JA (2003) Cigarette demand: A meta-analysis of elasticities. Health Econom. 12(10):821–835.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Garber LL Jr, Burke RR, Jones JM (2000) The role of package color in consumer purchase consideration and choice. Working paper, Marketing Science Institute, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
  • Gilpin EA, Emery S, White MW, Pierce JP (2002) Does tobacco industry marketing of “light” cigarettes give smokers a rationale for postponing quitting? Nicotine Tobacco Res. 4(Suppl 2):S147–S155.Google Scholar
  • Gilula Z, McCulloch RE, Rossi PE (2006) A direct approach to data fusion. J. Marketing Res. 43(1):73–83.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Goldfarb A, Tucker CE (2014) Conducting research with quasi-experiments: A guide for marketers. Rotman School of Management Working Paper No. 2420920, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Toronto.Google Scholar
  • Gruber J, Sen A, Stabile M (2003) Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: The sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada. J. Health Econom. 22(5):821–842.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Henderson PW, Giese JL, Cote JA (2004) Impression management using typeface design. J. Marketing 68(4):60–72.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hofstede G (2001) Culture’s Consequences—Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations Across Nations, 2nd ed. (SAGE Publications, Newbury Park, CA)Google Scholar
  • Huang J, Chaloupka FJ, Fong GT (2014) Cigarette graphic warning labels and smoking prevalence in Canada: A critical examination and reformulation of the FDA regulatory impact analysis. Tobacco Control 23(Suppl 1):i7–i12.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Huber J, McCann J (1982) The impact of inferential beliefs on product evaluations. J. Marketing Res. 19(3):324–333.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. Econometrics 115(1):53–74.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jann B (2015) Methodological report on Kaul and Wolf’s working papers on the effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia and the criticism raised by OxyRomandie. Technical report, Institute of Sociology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.Google Scholar
  • Kaul A, Wolf M (2014) The (possible) effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia: A trend analysis. Working Paper No. 165, University of Zurich, Zurich.Google Scholar
  • Keller KL (1993) Conceptualizing, measuring, and managing customer-based brand equity. J. Marketing 57(1):1–22.Google Scholar
  • Klimchuk MR, Krasovec SA (2006) Packaging Design: Successful Product Branding from Concept to Shelf (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
  • Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P, Shin Y (1992) Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? J. Econometrics 54(1–3):159–178.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Levin A, Lin CF, Chu CSJ (2002) Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. J. Econometrics 108(1):1–24.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Levy DT, Chaloupka F, Gitchell J (2004) The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: A tobacco control scorecard. J. Public Health Management Practice 10(4):338–353.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Machado FS, Sinha RV (2007) Smoking cessation: A model of planned vs. actual behavior for time-inconsistent consumers. Marketing Sci. 26(6):834–850.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Meyers H, Lubliner MJ (1998) The Marketer’s Guide to Successful Package Design (NTC, Lincolnwood, IL).Google Scholar
  • Millward Brown (2018) BrandZ top 100 global brands. Accessed April 29, 2019, http://www.millwardbrown.com/brandz/rankings-and-reports/top-global-brands/2018.Google Scholar
  • Morrot G, Brochet F, Dubourdieu D (2001) The color of odors. Brain Language 79(2):309–320.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Murphy WH (1999) Hofstede’s national culture as a guide for sales practices across countries: The case of a MNC’s sales practices in Australia and New Zealand. Australian J. Management 24(1):37–58.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nevo A (2001) Measuring market power in the ready-to-eat cereal industry. Econometrica 69(2):307–342.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nielsen Corporation (2015) Packaging sells. Accessed July 14, 2017, http://innovation.nielsen.com/packaging-sells-report.Google Scholar
  • Phillips PCB, Perron P (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75(2):335–346.Google Scholar
  • Rosenthal R (1991) Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research, vol. 6 (SAGE Publications, Inc., Newbury Park, CA).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Scollo M, Bayly M (2018) Tobacco in Australia: Facts and issues. Technical report, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia.Google Scholar
  • Stock JH, Watson MW (2012) Introduction to Econometrics, updated 3rd ed., global ed. (Pearson Boston).Google Scholar
  • Stock JH, Wright JH, Yogo M (2002) A survey of weak instruments and weak identification in generalized method of moments. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 20(4):518–529.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tucker C, Zhang J (2011) How does popularity information affect choices? a field experiment. Management Sci. 57(5):828–842.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2010) Preventing tobacco use among youth and young adults: A report of the surgeon general. Technical report, Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta.Google Scholar
  • Vanclay JK, Shortiss J, Aulsebrook S, Gillespie AM, Howell BC, Johanni R, Maher MJ, Mitchell KM, Stewart MD, Yates J (2011) Customer response to carbon labelling of groceries. J. Consumer Policy 34(1):153–160.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • van Heerde H, Gijsenberg MJ, Dekimpe MG, Steenkamp JB (2013) Price and advertising effectiveness over the business cycle. J. Marketing Res. 50(2):177–193.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wakefield MA, Germain D, Durkin SJ (2008) How does increasingly plainer cigarette packaging influence adult smokers’ perceptions about brand image? An experimental study. Tobacco Control 17(6):416–421.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wakefield MA, Morley C, Horan JK, Cummings KM (2002) The cigarette pack as image: New evidence from tobacco industry documents. Tobacco Control 11(Suppl 1):i73–i80.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wang Y, Lewis M, Singh V (2015) The unintended consequences of countermarketing strategies: How particular antismoking measures may shift consumers to more dangerous cigarettes. Marketing Sci. 35(1):55–72.Google Scholar
  • Zhang J (2010) The sound of silence: Observational learning in the U.S. kidney market. Marketing Sci. 29(2):315–335.LinkGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.