Help
Cart
Skip main navigation
Editor's Cut Crowdsourcing
Skip main navigation

RESEARCH ARTICLES

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical ...
Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presidential election featured an active online prediction market at Intrade.com, where securities addressing many different election-related outcomes were traded. Using the 2004 data ...
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Published Online:

Operations Research

    Abstract
    When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and ...
Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

Published Online:

Transportation Science

    Abstract
    Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, ...
Are We Wise About the Wisdom of Crowds? The Use of Group Judgments in Belief Revision

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Recent research has advanced our understanding of how people use the advice of others to update their beliefs. Because groups and teams play a significant role in organizations and collectively are wiser than their individual members, it is important to ...
Crowdsourcing New Product Ideas over Time: An Analysis of the Dell IdeaStorm Community

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Several organizations have developed ongoing crowdsourcing communities that repeatedly collect ideas for new products and services from a large, dispersed “crowd” of nonexperts (consumers) over time. Despite its promises, little is known about the nature ...
Should Managers Use Team-Based Contests?

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    When designing contests to motivate employees, should managers organize employees to compete in teams or as individuals? We develop a behavioral economics model that shows that if contestants are averse to being responsible for the team's loss, a team-...
Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation tasks. This result is attributed to the “wisdom of crowds.” We seek to ...
The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds

Published Online:

Decision Analysis

    Abstract
    We investigate optimal group member configurations for producing a maximally accurate group forecast. Our approach accounts for group members that may be biased in their forecasts and/or have errors that correlate with the criterion values being forecast. ...
Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    In fields as diverse as technology entrepreneurship and the arts, crowds of interested stakeholders are increasingly responsible for deciding which innovations to fund, a privilege that was previously reserved for a few experts, such as venture ...
Preferential Mistreatment: How Victim Status Moderates the Relationship Between Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Workplace Victimization

Published Online:

Organization Science

    Abstract
    This study investigates whether the performance of organizational citizenship behavior and three indicators of social status—hierarchical position, gender, and race—predict employees' vulnerability to being victimized by the harmful actions of others. We ...
Effect of Knowledge-Sharing Trajectories on Innovative Outcomes in Temporary Online Crowds

Published Online:

Information Systems Research

    Abstract
    There is substantial research on the effects of formal control structures (i.e., incentives, identities, organization, norms) on knowledge sharing leading to innovative outcomes in online communities. However, there is little research on how knowledge-...
Temporal Motivations of Volunteers to Participate in Cultural Crowdsourcing Work

Published Online:

Information Systems Research

    Abstract
    Crowdsourcing (CS) by cultural and heritage institutions engage volunteers in online projects without monetary compensation. Uncertainty concerning online volunteer motivation has led to a growing body of academic research. This study contributes to that ...
Understanding Voluntary Knowledge Provision and Content Contribution Through a Social-Media-Based Prediction Market: A Field Experiment

Published Online:

Information Systems Research

    Abstract
    The performance of prediction markets depends crucially on the quality of user contribution. A social-media-based prediction market can utilize aspects of social effects to improve users’ contribution quality. In this study, we examine the causal effect ...

Get Notified on Updated Content

INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.
Agree