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RESEARCH ARTICLES

Kelly Betting on Horse Races with Uncertainty in Probability Estimates

Published Online:

Decision Analysis

    Abstract
    We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using multinomial logistic ...
Using Mathematical Programming to Select and Seed Teams for the NCAA Tournament

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    We develop a mathematical programming model to select, rank, and seed 68 teams for the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Men’s Basketball Tournament. The selections and seeding are the responsibility of a 10-person selection committee, which ...
Scheduling A Major College Basketball Conference

Published Online:

Operations Research

    Abstract
    The nine universities in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) have a basketball competition in which each school plays home and away games against each other over a nine-week period. The creation of a suitable schedule is a very difficult problem with a ...
Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct ex ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional ...
Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct ex ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional ...
Expectations as Reference Points: Field Evidence from Professional Soccer

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    We show that professional soccer players and their coaches exhibit reference-dependent behavior during matches. Controlling for the state of the match and for unobserved heterogeneity, we show on a minute-by-minute basis that players breach the rules of ...
Quality, Subjectivity, and Sustained Superior Performance at the Olympic Games

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    In some competitions, performance evaluation includes a substantial subjective component. We argue that the inherent uncertainty and ambiguity in subjective evaluation can lead to favorable ex post treatment for reputationally privileged competitors. Post ...
Seeing Stars: Matthew Effects and Status Bias in Major League Baseball Umpiring

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    This paper tests the assumption that evaluators are biased to positively evaluate high-status individuals, irrespective of quality. Using unique data from Major League Baseball umpires' evaluation of pitch quality, which allow us to observe the difference ...
The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics

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Marketing Science

    Abstract
    I measure the spillover effect of intercollegiate athletics on the quantity and quality of applicants to institutions of higher education in the United States—an effect popularly known as the “Flutie effect.” I treat athletic success as a stock of ...
Momentum and Organizational Risk Taking: Evidence from the National Football League

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Management Science

    Abstract
    This study examines how momentum shapes organizational risk taking. We define momentum as a sustained and systematic trajectory in performance over time, and we argue that such trends impact interpretations of current performance as well as expectations ...
The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft

Published Online:

Management Science

    Abstract
    A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgment and decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strong economic incentives. To investigate this ...
Identifying the “Players” in Sports Analytics Research

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    Despite a sports analytics research history that goes back more than 50 years and a recent dramatic rise in the level of scholarly interest in sports analytics, no prior research has attempted to identify its scope, scale, and growth in terms of the body ...
Scheduling Major League Baseball Umpires and the Traveling Umpire Problem

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    The scheduling needs of umpires and referees differ from the needs of sports teams. In some sports leagues, such as Major League Baseball in the United States, umpires travel throughout the league's territory; they do not have a “home base.” For such ...
On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    The EA Sports Player Performance Index is a rating system for soccer players used in the top two tiers of soccer in England—the Premier League and the Championship. Its development was a collaboration among professional soccer leagues, a news media ...
Quantifying the Contribution of NHL Player Types to Team Performance

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    In this paper, we use k-means clustering to define distinct player types for each of the three positions on a National Hockey League (NHL) team and then use regression to determine a quantitative relationship between team performance and the player types ...
How Does Status Affect Performance? Status as an Asset vs. Status as a Liability in the PGA and NASCAR

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Organization Science

    Abstract
    Two competing predictions about the effect of status on performance appear in the organizational theory and sociological literatures. On one hand, various researchers have asserted that status improves performance. This line of work emphasizes tangible ...
A Major League Baseball Team Uses Operations Research to Improve Draft Preparation

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    Preparing for the annual major league baseball draft is a difficult task; with 1,500 players selected each year, teams must evaluate and rank many hundreds of potential draftees. To evaluate the players, these teams send out scouts, baseball experts who ...
Optimizing the Sunday Singles Lineup for a Ryder Cup Captain

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    The Ryder Cup competition between Team USA and Team Europe is the premier team event in professional golf, largely because of the drama associated with head-to-head matches on the final day (Sunday). The captain of each team must determine the exact ...
Optimizing the Sunday Singles Lineup for a Ryder Cup Captain

Published Online:

Interfaces

    Abstract
    The Ryder Cup competition between Team USA and Team Europe is the premier team event in professional golf, largely because of the drama associated with head-to-head matches on the final day (Sunday). The captain of each team must determine the exact ...
Teaching Statistics with Sports Examples

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INFORMS Transactions on Education

    Abstract
    Class material for introductory and advanced statistics can be colorfully illustrated by using appropriate data and examples from sports. Specific methods, including statistical graphics (e.g., boxplots), ball-and-urn probabilities, and statistical ...
A Markov Chain Approach to Baseball

Published Online:

Operations Research

    Abstract
    Most earlier mathematical studies of baseball required particular models for advancing runners based on a small set of offensive possibilities. Other efforts considered only teams with players of identical ability. We introduce a Markov chain method that ...
Technical Note—Operations Research on Football

Published Online:

Operations Research

    Abstract
    Based on a census of 8,373 plays from the first 56 games of the 1969 schedule of the National Football League, this note calculates, for various field positions, the expected point values of possession of the football with first down and ten yards to go, ...
Letter to the Editor—The Application of Operations-Research Methods to Athletic Games

Published Online:

OR

    Abstract
    The possibility of applying scientific method to athletic games does not appear to have received much attention by the operations research community. Certain sports, such as football, baseball, and basketball, simulate warfare, and would seem to provide ...

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